Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT WED APR 28 1999

RAIN...RAIN...AND MORE RAIN BEST DESCRIBE THIS UPCOMING PCKG FOR THE
PNHDLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE IF
QPF PROGS VERIFY. IN ADDITION...SVR WX ALSO A PSBLTY.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED IN A NW TO SE
FASHION ROUGHLY ALONG A KCAO TO KBGD TO KCDS TO KTXK LINE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS TNGT. THE DRYLINE
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR HERE IN PNHDLS FOR TNGT SINCE UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO NERN NM...COULD BE A FEATURE DOWNSTATE
IN W TX. MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING NWD AS SEEN BY RISING DEWPOINTS
ALL DAY. DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE W AND SW. TSTMS NOW DVLPG IN LBB
CWA BACK INTO ECNTRL NM. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS REGION TNGT FROM THE STRONG CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER SRN GREAT BASIN AND SW US. ALSO...LOV LVL
JET IMPINGING ON THETA-E AXIS DRAPED OVER ERN NM INTO WRN/CNTRL
SECTIONS OF FCST AREA MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IN ADDITION TO
ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED. BOTTOM LINE IS TO GO WITH HIGH POPS TNGT.
WILL PLACE HIGHEST OVER THE WRN AND SCALE BACK A BIT OVER THE ERN
THIRD. HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS PROBABLE AND DO AGREE WITH QPFPFD...
QPFERD FOR DAY 1. WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN RECENTLY AND THE
FACT THE STANDING WATER STILL EXISTS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE FCST AREA
...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS
TNGT. WILL LEAVE E OUT OF IT FOR NOW AS UA FLOW SUGGESTS BEST UPSLOPE
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IN W/CNTRL. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

12Z ETA/AVN/NGM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU 48 HRS IN MAINTAINING
CLOSED LOW IN A MEANDERING STATE OVER SRN GREAT BASIN AND SW US.
SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE LOW THRU FRI. SO BASICALLY...
OVERALL WX SCENARIO REPEATS ITSELF THU AND FRI AS OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE US. FLOODING THREAT WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME IF QPFPFD DAY 1 AND 2 NUMBERS VERIFY. SOME FAIRLY
HIGH 4-5 DAY TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT ISSUE FFA PAST TNGT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WIDESPREAD TOTALS ARE
TNGT BEFORE GOING MUCH BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME.

IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...UPPER LOW BEGINS OPENING UP AND MOVG ENE
SATURDAY AND SUN MORNING. WILL COMMENT NEW AVN A BIT FASTER IN DOING
THIS AS UPSTREAM KICKER GETS WITHIN RANGE. MAY KEEP SOME PRECIP IN
SUN AND LEAVE MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.

DHT 49/63/48/63  8777
GUY 50/64/49/62  8777
AMA 51/65/49/63  8777

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 001-006-007
-011-012-016-017.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE 001.

ANDRADE

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