Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
420 AM CDT TUE APR 13 1999

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVG SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SWRN AZ...ONCE AGAIN SLOWER AND FURTHER S
THAN EARLIER PROGS. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED W/SW NM...WITH A SFC TROF FORMING
OVER ERN CO INTO EXTRM NERN NM. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BREAKING
OUT OVER SW TX AND SERN NM. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS BEING AIDED BY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES
STREAMING NWWD AS WELL...SO IT APPEARS FCST AREA WILL HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT PRECIP TODAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF WED.

EXPECT THE SW LOW TO CONTINUE ITS EWD JOURNEY AS UPSTREAM KICKER IN
THE NRN STREAM IS WELL WITHIN THE 20 DEGREES LATITUDE...SO ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE SW LOW HAS COMMENCED VIA HENRYS RULE. AS FOR THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 00Z ETA STILL INSISTS ON BEING
THE FASTEST WITH HANDLING THE LOW...WHILE AVN/NGM ARE SLOWER AND ARE
PREFERRED. WILL COMMENT THAT THE 00Z AVN HAS A MORE SRN TRACK
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE IN VIEW OF THE
DVLPG NW FLOW ALOFT COURTESY OF THE EVENTUAL PHASING WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM. PLAN ON BRINGING THE UPPER LOW THRU CNTRL/SRN NM
TODAY...TOWARDS THE NM/TX STATE LINE AROUND 12Z WED...THEN ACROSS W
TX INTO EXTRM NRN TX/SRN OK ALONG THE RED RIVER BY 00Z THU.
TIMINGWISE...BEST THREAT OF PRECIP WILL BE TODAY AND TNGT...
DIMINISHING W TO E WED. ONE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT
DVLPG ON SATELLITE AND PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO AFFECT MUCH OF
WRN/SWRN PART OF FCST AREA LATE TODAY OR TNGT. TOUGH CALL AT THIS
TIME TO DETERMINE HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO WATCH ITS EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE ZONES...AND BASED ON PROGS SEE
LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ALSO...DVLPG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR N LATER TODAY SHOULD SLIP SWD INTO THE AREA
LATE TNGT OR EARLY WED...WITH SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OK PNHDL AS THIS BOUNDARY
ORGANIZES. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT OF ZONES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN DRY SLOT EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT ITSELF.
LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THIS AS WELL.

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOR WED WARRANTS RETAINING LOW TO CHC POPS SRN
SECTIONS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE N...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LATER WED AND WED EVENING. EXTENDED MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
WRN US RIDGE AND DEEP ERN US TROF. THIS IS MAINLY A DRY WX PATTERN.
PLAN ON GOING WITH THAT ALONG WITH SOME TWEEKING OF TEMPS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND EXITING
SW LOW. PRELIM VALUES FOLLOW.

DHT 66/38/51  673
GUY 66/43/53  673
AMA 69/43/54  672

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
116 PM CDT TUE APR 13 1999

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES
SOUTH OF CANYON TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO EXTENDING EAST TO
15 MILES SOUTH OF WHEELER. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EAST OF BOISE CITY.

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE FORMS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF AMARILLO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BROYLES

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
116 PM CDT TUE APR 13 1999

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES
SOUTH OF CANYON TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO EXTENDING EAST TO
15 MILES SOUTH OF WHEELER. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EAST OF BOISE CITY.

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE FORMS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF AMARILLO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BROYLES