Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
259 PM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

CAPES CONT TO INCR ACRS THE PNHDLS WITH CURRENT VALUES UP TO 4000
J/KG IN THE SERN ZONES.  OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION IN KS ERLY
THIS MRNG STALLED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AMA AND CDS AND IS NOW DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE.  BNDRY MAY RETURN N THIS EVENING AND BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TNGT.

SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI WITH ATTENDING TROF
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL.  APPEARS LO LVL SW FLOW WILL SETUP
ACRS THE WRN MOST ZONES WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN.  WILL REMOVE THE
POPS THERE.  WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES
THO SINCE AMS LIKELY TO BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINTS STILL IN THE 60S.  SFC LOW DVLPS SWD INTO THE OK PNHDL SAT
AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY DWNSLP FLOW CONTG IN THE WRN ZONES AND RICHER
AIR HOLDING IN THE EAST. WILL RETAIN SLGT CHC POP IN THE E AND REMOVE
POPS IN THE WEST.

FOR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FCST...HOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HGHTS BUILD ACRS
THE RGN.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE POSSIBLE MONDAY NITE OR TUESDAY MRNG.

AMA BB 066/094 068/098 069 07222

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SP

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
109 PM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.  IF STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW
MAY BECOME SEVERE.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WARM MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  FINALLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WAS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AIDE IN THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SINCE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SKYWARN AGENCIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE WEATHER SITUATION.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
109 PM CDT THU JUN 24 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.  IF STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW
MAY BECOME SEVERE.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A WARM MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  FINALLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WAS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AIDE IN THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SINCE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SKYWARN AGENCIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE WEATHER SITUATION.

JH