Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CDT THU JUN 10 1999

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING DRYLN LOCATED FM JUST E OF LVS SWD TO JUST W OF
ROW TO JUST E OF GDP.  STNRY FNT STRETCHES FM NERN KS SWWD INTO
SWRN KS BTWN LBL AND SPD TO BTWN CAO AND DHT AND THEN EXTENDING NWWD
TO JUST S OF TAD AND THEN INTO WRN CO.  UPSLP SFC FLOW NOTED OVR
MOST OF THE FA ATTM.  IN THE UPR LVLS...SPD MAX COMING OUT OF THE
SWRN STATES WL APCH THE FA BY TNGT.  PNHDLS SHOULD BE ON LEFT EXIT
RGN OF THE JET MAX WITH GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE.  WK SHRTWV ENERGY FCSTD
BY THE ETA TO APCH THE PNHDLS FM THE W TNGT.  ETA ALSO FCSTG GOOD
POSITIVE OMEGA ACRS THE PNHDLS TNGT.  WL LIKELY SEE A THREAT FOR SVR
CNVTN S AND W OF A DHT TO STINNETT TO CLAUDE LN WITH A BETTER THREAT
FOR HVY RNFL/FLOODING TO THE N AND E OF THE LN.  WL LIKELY GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTRM N-CNTRL AND ERN SXNS OF THE FA...WITH A
MENTION OF PSBL SVR ALL SXNS TNGT.  LI/S ATTM RUNNING FM -6 IN THE
N TO -10 IN THE S AND E.  CAPES RUNNING FM 1800 TO 2200 J/KG IN
THE NRN SXNS TO BTWN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG IN THE S AND SERN SXNS.
ALREADY SEEING CNVTN DVLPG ON THE SRN END OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT
STRETCHES NW TO SE FM W OF AMA TO ALG THE CAPROCK W OF CDS.

FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST BET OF HVY RNFL ACRS MOST OF THE PNHDLS
AS FNT SINKS FURTHER S INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL OR NRN TX S PLNS RGN AND
SHRTWV TROF MOVS ACRS THE FA.  WL KEEP HIER POPS OVR NRN AND ERN SXNS
TNGT WITH LESSER POPS OVR THE WRN AND CNTRL SXNS.  FRI NGT...HWVR...
WL GO WITH BETTER CHC POPS ACRS ALL SXNS.  HVY RNFL/SVR THREAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD SAT AND SAT NGT WITH UPSLP FLOW BHND THE CDFNT AND
CLSD/CUT OFF UPR LOW WITH STRONG SHRTWV FCSTD TO EJECT EWD FM THE
SWRN STATES APCHG W TX BY 12Z SUN.  FEEL THAT CNVTN WL BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN SUN THRU TUE AS A BLOCKING UPR RDG PATTERN SETS UP OVR THE
PNHDLS AND THEN SHIFTS WWD BY TUE.  ONE SHRTWV DOES AFFECT THE FA LT
MON/MON NGT FM THE NW...SO WL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH SUN AND MON.
HWVR...WL GO WITH SLGT CHC TUE AS UPR FLOW BCMS NWLY ON ERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPR RDG.  MAY GET SOME CNVTN MOV OFF THE MTNS OF NM.

PRELIM CCF:
AMA 063/085 059/083 058  325
GUY 061/082 057/078 057  635
DHT 059/084 056/079 055  426

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM FOR TXZ003>005-009-010-014-015-020.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM FOR OKZ002-003.

SCHNEIDER

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-102300-

TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 10 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COOL
FRONT OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER BEAVER COUNTY
OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLATTERY

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-102300-

TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 10 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COOL
FRONT OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER BEAVER COUNTY
OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SLATTERY