Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CDT TUE JULY 27 1999

FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SFC TROF NOW IN WESTERN CWA AND MOVING EAST. MOISTURE CONTS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE TROF...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DWPTS
EXPECTED. 17Z GOES SOUNDER HAS CAPES INVOF 32 KJ/KG...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY LINES UP WELL WITH 18Z KABR SOUNDING THAT SPC ORDERED.
MODIFYING 18Z SOUNDING FOR EXPECTED HIGHS/DWPTS SHOWS THAT CAP
ERODES COMPLETELY WITH CAPES AROUND 59 KJ/KG WITH LI'S TO -14. ETA
BUFKIT SHOWS THAT PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES FROM 22Z TO 04Z
TNT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR A BIT LACKING...BUT POSSIBLY MADE UP WITH
SPEED SHEAR. ETA SHOWS WEAK 5H VORT MAX SLIDING THROUGH FROM
06-12Z...WHILE 7H VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH 00-06Z. BY 00Z THETA-E
RIDGE POPS UP IN WRN SD...MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA BY 06Z. WILL GO
WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ETA ALSO SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME WORKING UP FROM DESERT SW AREA. DUE TO THIS...WILL
ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN. ON WED...MDLS SHOW DRY AIR SLIDING IN A LOW
LEVELS BEHIND TROF/COLD FRONT. WITH RIDGE BUILDING...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB NICELY. SAME HOLDS FOR THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW
MOS TEMPS...AS THEY SEEM REASONABLE.

...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.ABR...TOR WATCH #591 NERN SD AND BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MN
UNTIL 01Z.

HINTZ/ECKBERG

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