Tornado Warning 2, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD...CORRECTED DATE/TIME
1005 AM MDT WED MAY 20 1998

H20 VAP STLT LOOP SHOWS WHAT 12Z ETA SAYS IN THAT WK WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH NE WY AND WRN SD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD LOOK FOR A
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OF -TSRA CURRENTLY OVR WRN WY...BUT UNSURE
ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS PASS. CLD COVER
CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING HEATING OVR SD SO DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE TO
OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ERN WY...THEN MOVE INTO WRN SD. RUC2
SFC SHOWS AREA OF SFC H20 CONV IN ERN WY BY 00Z...ETA HAS THIS SAME
FEATURE A LITTLE SOONER THEN MOVES IT EAST INTO WRN SD. SO I GUESS
THAT MDLS MATCH UP WELL WITH CURRENT FCST AND I SHOULDNT NEED TO
UPDATE. ALSO ISSUED SPS FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SVR NE WY AND WRN SD AS
SHEAR AROUND 25 M/S AND CAPES A2500 SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SUPERCELL
OR TWO.

.UNR...NONE.

BAILEY SPECI KUNR 201605Z 13012KT 17/13

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-WYZ054>058-220600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
940 AM MDT THU MAY 20 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THESE
STORMS WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WYCJIN-WYNE
BAILEY