Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 9, 1998, 4:52 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 9, 1998, 4:52 PM MST (23:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 9, 1998, 5:40 PM MST
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -251 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2806 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 092354 RRA SVRTUS AZC019-100040- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 452 PM MST WED SEP 9 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AJO AND ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 85 NORTH WHY * UNTIL 540 PM MST * AT 452 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR AJO. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... AJO AT 500 PM MST. JD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST WED SEP 9 1998 SYNOPSIS...THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE FOR ALL OF ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL INCREASZE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY IN DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD. CANT RULE OUT NOCTURNAL STORMS...AND AS LONG AS TROF STAYS TO THE WEST ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. THINK BEST DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MAY BE FRIDAY AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST IN THIS PART OF THE STATE THAT DAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SEE MORNING STORMS. THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE MORE MOIST BY THEN AND HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA ALSO. STILL DONT SEE AN END TO MONSOON SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUS 3345. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 9, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-100700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED SEP 9 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 5 10 0 NW 10
GRAHAM 20 5 10 0 NW 10
GREENLEE 40 5 10 0 NW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 20 20 5 N 15
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 30 10 N 20
WESTERN PIMA 40 25 30 10 N 20
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 20 10 N 15
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 20 10 N 15
SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE EAST WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NORTH REDUCING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALTHOUGH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHSpecial weather statement, Sep 9, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-100700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED SEP 9 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 20 5 10 0 NW 10
GRAHAM 20 5 10 0 NW 10
GREENLEE 40 5 10 0 NW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 20 20 5 N 15
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 30 10 N 20
WESTERN PIMA 40 25 30 10 N 20
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 20 10 N 15
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 20 10 N 15
SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE EAST WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NORTH REDUCING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALTHOUGH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHNearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.