Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 1998, 5:05 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 1998, 5:05 PM MST (00:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 1998, 5:55 PM MST
- In force
- 50 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -99 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3120 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
006 WUUS1 KTUS 140007 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-140055- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 505 PM MST MON JUL 13 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 555 PM MST * AT 503 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON HIGHWAY 80 ABOUT 13 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DOUGLAS OR 7 MILES EAST OF BISBEE NEARLY STATIONARY. WJM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST MON JUL 13 1998 SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MIGRATES NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIVING A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO...ANOTHER BIG COMPLEX EXPECTED TONIGHT TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THUS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED. TUS 2223. LUDWIG .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-140700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUL 13 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 10 S 10
GRAHAM 20 30 20 5 S 10
GREENLEE 20 10 20 0 S 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 30 20 5 S 10
TOHONO OODHAM 10 30 10 0 S 10
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 20 30 10 0 S 10
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 10 S 10
SYNOPSIS...TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
YESTERDAY AS LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED ACTIVITY TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON SOUTH.
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/LUDWIGSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-140700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON JUL 13 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 10 S 10
GRAHAM 20 30 20 5 S 10
GREENLEE 20 10 20 0 S 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 30 20 5 S 10
TOHONO OODHAM 10 30 10 0 S 10
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 20 30 10 0 S 10
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 10 S 10
SYNOPSIS...TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER
YESTERDAY AS LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED ACTIVITY TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON SOUTH.
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/LUDWIGNearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.