Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 1998, 6:38 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 28, 1998, 6:38 PM MST (01:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 1998, 7:25 PM MST
- In force
- 47 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 155 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3328 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
921 WUUS1 KTUS 290139 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-290225- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 638 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 725 PM MST * AT 636 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR FT HUACHUCA AND SIERRA VISTA. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH. MEYER
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 2:30 PM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 2:30 PM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998 SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A STRONG INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. DISCUSSION...TWO FACTORS LEADING TO A BIG UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FIRST IS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF DOUGALS. THIS HAS PUSHED MOISTURE BOUNDRY JUST TO THE WEST OF TUCSON. THIS REFLECTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IS GULF SURGE TAKING PLACE AT THE MOMENT. ITS ONLY MINOR SO FAR BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO BIG COMPLEX MOVING UP THE GULF AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS MOISTURE SURGE. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST TO ISOLATED FAR WEST TONIGHT AND THEN GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WAVE IN THE PICTURE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL NOT CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUS 4444. COLLINS .TWC...NONE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 40 20 40 20 W 10
GRAHAM 40 20 40 20 W 10
GREENLEE 50 20 40 20 W 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 30 10 W 10
TOHONO OODHAM 20 30 20 5 NW 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 30 20 5 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 30 20 10 NE 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 40 20 NW 10
SYNOPSIS...GOOD MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST PAST 12-24 HOURS.
SHOULD SEE BIG INCRESE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON. ALSO MINOR GULF SURGE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN AREAS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***
END/CECSpecial weather statement, Jul 28, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 40 20 40 20 W 10
GRAHAM 40 20 40 20 W 10
GREENLEE 50 20 40 20 W 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 30 10 W 10
TOHONO OODHAM 20 30 20 5 NW 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 30 20 5 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 30 20 10 NE 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 40 20 NW 10
SYNOPSIS...GOOD MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST PAST 12-24 HOURS.
SHOULD SEE BIG INCRESE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON. ALSO MINOR GULF SURGE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN AREAS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***
END/CECThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 5:53 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 47 min |
| Jul 28, 6:30 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 65 min |
| Jul 28, 7:22 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 63 min |
| Jul 29, 4:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 32 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.