Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 28, 1998Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 1998, 6:38 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 28, 1998, 6:38 PM MST (01:38 UTC)
Expired
Jul 28, 1998, 7:25 PM MST
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 155 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
155 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3328 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

921 
WUUS1 KTUS 290139 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC003-290225-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
638 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 725 PM MST

* AT 636 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR FT HUACHUCA AND
  SIERRA VISTA. MOVEMENT OF THE   STORMS IS TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10
  MPH.

MEYER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 2:30 PM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 2:30 PM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO
A STRONG INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...TWO FACTORS LEADING TO A BIG UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FIRST IS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF DOUGALS. THIS HAS PUSHED MOISTURE
BOUNDRY JUST TO THE WEST OF TUCSON. THIS REFLECTED IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND IS GULF SURGE TAKING
PLACE AT THE MOMENT. ITS ONLY MINOR SO FAR BUT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO BIG COMPLEX MOVING UP THE GULF AND LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS MOISTURE SURGE. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST TO ISOLATED FAR WEST TONIGHT AND THEN
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
EASTERLY WAVE IN THE PICTURE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL NOT CONFINE
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO CHANGE
SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUS 4444. COLLINS

.TWC...NONE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          20          40         20     W  10
GRAHAM           40          20          40         20     W  10
GREENLEE         50          20          40         20     W  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  30          20          30         10     W  10
TOHONO OODHAM   20          30          20          5     NW 10
WESTERN PIMA     20          30          20          5     NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          30          20         10     NE 10
SANTA CRUZ       40          20          40         20     NW 10

SYNOPSIS...GOOD MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST PAST 12-24 HOURS.
SHOULD SEE BIG INCRESE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON. ALSO MINOR GULF SURGE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN AREAS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***

END/CEC
Special weather statement, Jul 28, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          20          40         20     W  10
GRAHAM           40          20          40         20     W  10
GREENLEE         50          20          40         20     W  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  30          20          30         10     W  10
TOHONO OODHAM   20          30          20          5     NW 10
WESTERN PIMA     20          30          20          5     NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          30          20         10     NE 10
SANTA CRUZ       40          20          40         20     NW 10

SYNOPSIS...GOOD MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST PAST 12-24 HOURS.
SHOULD SEE BIG INCRESE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON. ALSO MINOR GULF SURGE WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN AREAS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***

END/CEC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 5:53 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise47 min
Jul 28, 6:30 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCCochise65 min
Jul 28, 7:22 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima63 min
Jul 29, 4:13 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.