Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 24, 1998, 1:59 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 1998, 1:59 PM MST (20:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 1998, 2:45 PM MST
- In force
- 46 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 516 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1354 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
173 WUUS1 KTUS 242101 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-242145- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 159 PM MST FRI JUL 24 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 245 PM MST * AT 155 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF WILLCOX MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS INTERSTATE 10 JUST NORTHEAST OF WILLCOX BETWEEN 2 PM AND 230 PM MST. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WILLCOX BY 210 PM MST JD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 24, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST FRI JUL 24 1998 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS PLENTLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING. THE BIG ONE IS THE EXPLOSIVE 5 AM TUCSON SOUNDING. WHEN THIS SOUNDING WAS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON HEATING THE RESULT WAS AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST STEERING WINDS...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE TO TAKE THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON INTO THE LOWER WESTERN DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL HAVE A HIGHER THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS AND A LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS WAS A 300 MB UPPER TROUGH OFF THE BAJA COAST MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WAS PUSHING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. CURRENT FORECASTS MENTION LOCAL MORNING FOG AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THIS WEATHER IN A MORNING ZONE UPDATE AND GET READY FOR THE AFTERNOON. TUSr 333. OKULSKI .TWC...NONE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 24, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-250700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 24 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 45 50 35 SE 10
GRAHAM 50 45 50 35 SE 10
GREENLEE 50 30 40 20 SE 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 35 35 40 20 E 10
TOHONO OODHAM 25 30 30 10 E 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 10 20 5 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 35 40 15 E 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 35 45 20 E 10
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. ORGANIZED AND LONG LIVED
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/RJOSpecial weather statement, Jul 24, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-250700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 24 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 45 50 35 SE 10
GRAHAM 50 45 50 35 SE 10
GREENLEE 50 30 40 20 SE 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 35 35 40 20 E 10
TOHONO OODHAM 25 30 30 10 E 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 10 20 5 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 35 40 15 E 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 35 45 20 E 10
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. ORGANIZED AND LONG LIVED
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/RJOThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 5:32 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Graham | 63 min |
| Jul 23, 9:05 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 45 min |
| Jul 23, 9:45 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 90 min |
| Jul 24, 1:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 47 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.