Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON AUG 24 1998

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPR LOW MOVG NR AJO ENHANCING TSTMS IN THAT AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME TRAINING...ONE HOUR PRECIPS NR 1 INCH AND THREE
HOUR PRECIPS OVR 2 INCHES...BUT MOST OF THIS IN SMALL AREAS OVR
MTNS.

AS TYPICAL LOW VALLEYS DID NOT SEE TOO MUCH ON MON MAINLY DUE TO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORMS AND ANVILS FROM STORMS
BLOWING ACROSS PATH OF PROPOGATION. PLENTY OF MOUNTAIN CAPE AND A
LOT OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THERE AND SPILLING OUT INTO VALLEYS IN
NE PINAL AND COCHISE COUNTY. DONT THINK THAT TONIGHTS STORMS OUT
WEST WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAT CANT BE
OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE.

FACTORS FOR VALLEYS SEEING MORE PRECIP TODAY IS THAT H2 WNDS WILL
BECOME WRLY...SWRLY AT H4...AND BECOMING SERLY DOWN TO H7. SO ANVILS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO STORM MOTION TODAY. PLENTY OF
MSTR IN PLACE...00Z SOUNDING AND CURRENT H8 PLOTS SHOW DEWPOINT
TEMPS AT 13-14C. ALSO DOESNT APPEAR THAT LOW LVLS WERE COOLED TO
MUCH FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS.

INHIBITING FACTOR IS PRESENT CONVECTION OUT WEST...COULD COOL LOW
LVLS IN DESERT ADVECTING IN LOWER THETA E AIR DURG THE AFTN IN LOW
LVLS.

MODIFYING SOUNDING STILL GIVES US LARGE CAPE VALUES AND WITH PLENTY
OF PWATER IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAVY RAIN GUSTY WINDS
WORDING.

A QUICK LOOK AT NEW MRF SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERN TO OTHER MODELS
PUSHING H5 HI TO SE A LITTLE BUT LATE IN THE WEEK IT REBOUNDS TO
NORMAL POSITION. THIS WOULD HINT A SOME DRYING BUT WITH 20KT SRLY
WND ON KYUX VAD JUST THINK WE WILL STAY MOIST IN LOW LVLS THRU THE
WEEK WITH PREVIUOS DAYS ACTIVITY DRIVING THE NEXT DAYS EVENTS.

TUS 443. HOLBROOK

.TWC...NONE.