Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 3, 1998Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 3, 1998, 2:56 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 119 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 1998, 2:56 PM MST (21:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 1998, 4:55 PM MST
In force: 119 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 73 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -246 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 032159
FFWTUS
AZC003-032355-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST FRI JUL 3 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 455 PM MST

* AT 255 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 10 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA
  NEAR HIGHWAY 92...NEA:RLY STATIONARY. STORMS PRODUCING 2 INCHES OF
  RAINFALL WERE LOCATED NEAR CORONADO NATIONAL
  MONUMENT AND RAMSEY CANYON.



  MCCOLLUM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 3, 2:30 PM MST, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 2:30 PM MST, 26 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 3 1998

SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST...THOUGH
THE ETA DOES LEAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.  THOUGH NOT AS
FAR NORTH. WILL CONFINE ACTIVITY TO SOUTH AND EAST ZONES...NOT IN
TUCSON.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT MORE DRYING BY
SUNDAY FOR A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS. THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

TUS 1000.

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 12:13 PM MST, 2 hours 43 minutes before

AZZ019-026>030-040700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 03 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
              COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          30          10          20          5     N-NE 5-10
GRAHAM           20          10          20          5     N-NE 5-10
GREENLEE         30          10          20          5     N-NE 5-10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  10           5           5          2     N-NE 5-10
TOHONO OODHAM    0           0           0          0
WESTERN PIMA      0           0           0          0
SOUTHEAST PINAL  10           5           5          2     N-NE 5-10
SANTA CRUZ       20           5           5          2     N-NE 5-10

SYNOPSIS...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE MOIST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA MAY HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998 Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.