Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 17, 1998, 5:00 PM MST for Pima County, Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 90 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 17, 1998, 5:00 PM MST (00:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 17, 1998, 6:30 PM MST
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
Counties Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 107 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -196 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2013 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 172359 FFWTUS AZC019-021-180130- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 500 PM MST MON AUG 17 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 630 PM MST * AT 458 PM MST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM JUST WEST OF THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD THROUGH MARANA AND ALONG INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH RED ROCK... MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR HAS BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR FROM THESE STORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. DRB
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 17, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 17, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST MON AUG 17 1998 SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...THE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS INFLUX IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW NEAR BLYTHE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 12Z MODELS TREATED THIS FEATURE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO SPECIFICALLY IN ITS MOVEMENT. INSTEAD OF MOVING SLOWLY ESE IT IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE NE. EARLIER THIS MORNING I THOUGHT THAT THE AREA FROM TUCSON WEST WILL BE UNDER THE BEST THREAT FROM FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SEEN ON SOUNDER DATA AND TUCSON/PHOENIX 12Z SOUNDING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WHICH HAS SHIFTED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM TUCSON EAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THREAT OF STORMS IS TO TRAIN THUS ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 9 PM. 12Z ETA THE BEST MODEL AND FORECAST IS BASED ON IT. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ACTION GOING OVERNIGHT AND HAVE WORDED THE FORECAST THIS WAY. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY CENTRAL/WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANGE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER FEATURE DOWN BY GUYMAS WHICH ETA MOVES A PIECE OF IT NORTH OVER SE AZ DURING PEAK HEATING TIME TUESDAY. AFTERNNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NGM MOS. TUS 5232. GLUECK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 17, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-180700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON AUG 17 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 60 30 50 25 NW 10
GRAHAM 50 30 50 15 NW 10
GREENLEE 40 10 30 5 NW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 50 30 50 25 N 10
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 40 20 N 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 20 20 10 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 30 40 25 N 10
SANTA CRUZ 60 30 50 30 N 10
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE THAN SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS AND THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS EXISTS AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY NORTH WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Special weather statement, Aug 17, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-180700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON AUG 17 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 60 30 50 25 NW 10
GRAHAM 50 30 50 15 NW 10
GREENLEE 40 10 30 5 NW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 50 30 50 25 N 10
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 40 20 N 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 20 20 10 NE 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 30 40 25 N 10
SANTA CRUZ 60 30 50 30 N 10
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE THAN SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS AND THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS EXISTS AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY NORTH WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 6:29 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 61 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.