Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 5, 1998, 3:38 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 5, 1998, 3:38 PM MST (22:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 5, 1998, 6:10 PM MST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Santa Cruz County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 364 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2299 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 232 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 052239 FFWTUS AZC023-060110- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 338 PM MST WED AUG 5 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 610 PM MST * AT 340... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...GENERALLY EAST OF NOGALES IN TTHE PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHWAY 82 JUST NORTHEAST OF NOGALES. VPH
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 5, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST WED AUG 5 1998 SYNOPSIS...A SURGE ON MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY FRIDAY FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DISCUSSION...GULF SURGE FROM THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AT YUMA BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT MIXED OUT AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWS THIS WEDGE OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA WAS THE FIRST TO START WITH CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND ANSWERED ONE OF MY QUESTIONS FROM MORNING DISCUSSION. AS OF 2PM/21Z THE BIGGEST STORMS WERE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE THE MOISTURE IS MUCH RICHER. MODELS PROG WEAK SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTH TO DOUGLAS TONIGHT AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT (-10C AIR) MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION TONIGHT. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY NW OF LAS VEGAS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY. UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THURSDAY THAN EASTERLY ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE WITH TODAY ONLY SETTING CONDITIONS UP. CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH LAPSE RATES CONTINUING RATHER STEEP FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY. SPC (STORMS PREDICTION CENTER) ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF SE AZ IN SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. WILL HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS IN AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. TUS 2343. GLUECK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED AUG 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 15 30 10 S 12
GRAHAM 30 15 20 5 S 12
GREENLEE 30 15 20 0 S 12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 15 30 0 S 10
TOHONO OODHAM 10 10 20 0 S 10
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 10 20 0 S 10
SANTA CRUZ 30 15 30 10 S 12
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SUGRE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST
ARIZONA OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH LOCAL
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/ROSpecial weather statement, Aug 5, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED AUG 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 15 30 10 S 12
GRAHAM 30 15 20 5 S 12
GREENLEE 30 15 20 0 S 12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 15 30 0 S 10
TOHONO OODHAM 10 10 20 0 S 10
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 10 20 0 S 10
SANTA CRUZ 30 15 30 10 S 12
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALL OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SUGRE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST
ARIZONA OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH LOCAL
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/RONearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.