Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 21, 1998, 3:10 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 1998, 3:10 PM MST (22:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 1998, 5:10 PM MST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 107 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -132 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 977 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 159 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 212211 FFWTUS AZC003-211810- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 310 PM MST TUE JUL 21 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 510 PM MST * AT 308... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 5 MILES EAST OF BENSON AND JUST EAST OF ST DAVID.8..MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. T
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 21, 2:30 PM MST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 2:30 PM MST, 40 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST TUE JUL 21 1998 SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF MOIST MONSOON CONTIIONS. DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HARD TO FIND A REAL FOCUS FOR TODAYS CONVECTION AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE AND RECENT TRAJECTORIES AT LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE FROM THE SOUTH WHERE LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED RATHER RAPIDLY AND SEE LOTS OF SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ON THE RADAR ALREADY. RECENTLY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ARIZONA WHERE TERRAIN AND OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE FORCING SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING STORMS AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TEXAS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL ON THE MODELS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO AFFECT TUCSON AREA. INVERTED TROUGH LOSES ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO TUCSON FORECAST AREA...BUT DOES BRING A NICELY ORGANIZED MID LEVEL WIND FIELD /FROM THE EAST/ INTO THE AREA. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT COULD SEE NICELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AGAIN TUESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN KEEPING AN ACTIVIE MONSOON FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE WEEK. TUS 545. DRB. .TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 29 AND 31 TO 35 /PIMA...COCHISE ...SANTA CRUZ...AND SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTIES/ UNTIL 9 PM MST.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 21, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-220700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 21 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 55 20 75 35 N 10
GRAHAM 45 15 60 25 NW 8
GREENLEE 55 20 80 30 W 12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 10 70 30 NW 8
TOHONO OODHAM 40 15 70 25 NW 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 20 45 30 NW 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 15 50 25 W 8
SANTA CRUZ 70 20 90 50 NW 8
SYNOPSIS...***HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE*** VERY MOIST MONSOONAL AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/DRBSpecial weather statement, Jul 21, 12:45 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-220700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 21 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 55 20 75 35 N 10
GRAHAM 45 15 60 25 NW 8
GREENLEE 55 20 80 30 W 12
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 45 10 70 30 NW 8
TOHONO OODHAM 40 15 70 25 NW 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 20 45 30 NW 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 15 50 25 W 8
SANTA CRUZ 70 20 90 50 NW 8
SYNOPSIS...***HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE*** VERY MOIST MONSOONAL AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/DRBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2:47 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 2 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.