Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 1998, 3:52 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 1998, 3:52 PM MST (22:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 1998, 4:50 PM MST
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -276 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2741 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -29 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 102254 FFWTUS AZC003-102350- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 352 PM MST FRI JUL 10 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 450 PM MST * AT 350 PM MST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORTAL...NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS STORM MAY ALSO CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DRAINAGES IN THE VICINITY OF THE NATURAL BRIDGE TO HORSESHOE CANYON ARE PARTICULARILY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...SEEK HIGH GROUND IMMEDIATELY. LUDWIG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 2:15 PM MST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:15 PM MST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 215 PM MST FRI JUL 10 1998 SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...MONSOON SLOWS TO A CRAWL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM TEXAS AND SQUEEZES OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE. WE'LL KEEP ENOUGH AROUND FOR A FEW BUILDUPS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT VALLEY ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT INCREASES WITH LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALLOW STRONG WARMING. WE'LL NEED SOME HELP FROM MEXICO IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOWS FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR SOME KIND OF SURGE IF WE ARE TO BREAK OUT OF THIS QUICKLY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED. MEYER TUS 111. .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-110700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 10 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 25 0 30 0 N 5
GRAHAM 25 0 30 0 N 5
GREENLEE 30 0 30 0 N 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 0 25 0 NE 5
TOHONO OODHAM 15 0 20 0 NE 5
WESTERN PIMA 10 0 20 0 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 0 20 0 NE 5
SANTA CRUZ 25 0 25 0 NE 5
SYNOPSIS...
UGH. DRIER AND A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY...EVEN MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THAT
DO FORM WONT BE TERRIBLY INCLINED WANDER OFF INTO THE VALLEYS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/WJMSpecial weather statement, Jul 10, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-110700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 10 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 25 0 30 0 N 5
GRAHAM 25 0 30 0 N 5
GREENLEE 30 0 30 0 N 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 0 25 0 NE 5
TOHONO OODHAM 15 0 20 0 NE 5
WESTERN PIMA 10 0 20 0 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 15 0 20 0 NE 5
SANTA CRUZ 25 0 25 0 NE 5
SYNOPSIS...
UGH. DRIER AND A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY...EVEN MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THAT
DO FORM WONT BE TERRIBLY INCLINED WANDER OFF INTO THE VALLEYS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/WJMNearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.