Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 464, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 16, 1998Benton County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 16, 1998, 9:15 PM CDT for Benton County, Arkansas. It was in force for 45 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 16, 1998, 9:15 PM CDT (02:15 UTC)
Expired
Oct 16, 1998, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Benton County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 16, 9:20 PM CDTThunderstorm WindCave Spgs, ARA large tree was blown down.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 1998-10-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 204 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 1998-10-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 231 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
204 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
742 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
231 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
2.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

487 
WUUS54 KTSA 170216 RRA
SVRTUL
ARC007-170300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
     EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 915 PM CDT RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF HEALING SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MILES PER
  HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...  GARFIELD...AVOCA...CAVE
  SPRINGS...HEALING SPRINGS...GATEWAY...PEA RIDGE...LOWELL...ROGERS
  AND BENTONVILLE

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE NEAR ITS PATH YOU SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3625 9435 3614 9417 3668 9360 3683 9384

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 16, 4:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 4:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?

NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL OKLA THIS AFTN WILL EXPAND
EWD TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS AS LOW LVL WARM
ADVECTION IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS.

MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MO
AND IA SAT NITE. RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE IN LIKELY CATEGORY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. CUD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS IN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT LIMITED INSTBY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR
SOUTH.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE SAT NITE OR SUN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS RED RIVER
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THAT
AREA.

IN EXTDD...RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER BEHIND NEXT COOL SURGE PROGD
TO MOVE ACROSS PLAINS.

FCSTID = 9
TUL   66  75  49  64 /  70  70  40  10
FSM   65  77  58  69 /  60  80  60  30
MLC   70  76  55  68 /  70  70  60  20
BVO   65  75  47  63 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   66  74  53  65 /  70  80  60  10
IDB   69  78  64  72 /  40  50  60  40
BYV   65  74  51  64 /  70  80  60  10
MIO   66  74  50  64 /  70  80  50  10
MKO   66  75  50  65 /  70  70  40  10
F10   68  76  52  66 /  70  70  40  10
HHW   68  77  62  72 /  50  50  60  40

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 16, 9:09 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    STILWELL                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
10/16/98   ADAIR                          REPORTED BY STILWELL PD

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.