Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 433, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 2, 1998McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 1998, 9:22 PM CDT for McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 23 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 1998, 9:22 PM CDT (02:22 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 1998, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

Counties McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Oct 2, 9:27 PM CDT	Hail 0.88	Checotah, OK	Location: OK Hwy 150 and I-40

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 925 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 275 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 335 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

171 
WUUS54 KTSA 030224 RRA
SVRTUL
OKC091-101-030245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
     MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 922 PM CDT RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF
  ONAPA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MILES PER HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...  SUMMIT...KEEFETON...OKTAHA...
  WARNER...RENTIESVILLE...ONAPA AND CHECOTAH

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
IN THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3548 9573 3533 9561 3555 9515 3577 9528

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 3:45 PM CDT, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 3:45 PM CDT, 5 hours 37 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES

WHAT A MESS!!!

APPARENT LEAD SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR EXTENDS FROM UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  QUESTION IS
WILL IT BE ABLE TO GENERATE ANY MORE CONVECTION AS AREA BEHIND
CURRENT RAIN APPEARS TO BE DRY SLOTTED.  ALSO CURRENT RAIN HAS
PROBABLY STABILIZED AIR OVER SOUTH SO THREAT OF SEVERE QUESTIONABLE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO CURRENT
RAIN BUT WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.

AFTER THIS FIRST TROUGH THINGS GET MERKY.  WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  ANY
SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD START UP RAIN AGAIN.  CANNOT RULE OUT
RAIN ALMOST ANY DAY AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIFFERENT BECAUSE A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING IN.  MRF...NGM AND AVN
MOS AGREE IN THIS ASSESSMENT EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN MRF MOS STILL
WANTS POPS.

TEMPERATUREWISE AM SET UP FOR A BIG BUST ALMOST ANY DAY.  EXPECT
BREAKS IN CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD
IT RAIN ALL DAY AGAIN TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER.  AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH
MOS EXCEPT IN EXTENDED WHEN I FIGURED COOL DOWN DID NOT MAKE SENSE
SINCE NOTHING WAS CHANGING UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   63  80  67  82 /  40  30  30  30
FSM   62  81  65  83 /  70  30  30  30
MLC   63  85  67  84 /  50  30  30  30
BVO   60  77  65  81 /  40  30  30  30
FYV   60  78  63  80 /  70  30  30  30
IDB   65  86  69  85 /  50  30  30  30
BYV   60  78  63  80 /  70  30  30  30
MIO   60  76  64  80 /  50  30  30  30
MKO   63  80  67  82 /  40  30  30  30
F10   63  80  67  82 /  40  30  30  30
HHW   65  86  69  85 /  50  30  30  30

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ABBAS

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PREC4IP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE SEVERE
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 2, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 1998 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.