Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING?
WILL THERE BE ANY FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY?
TEMPERATURES STARTING LATE TONIGH INTO THURSDAY

PATTERNWISE:
EXPECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SW LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEFLECTS TO THE EAST AND 500 MB LOW IN DESERT SW
BEGINS TO KICK OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS GOOD PUSH BEHIND IT AT
SFC-850MB SO EXPECT IT TO PLOW ON THRU OVER NEXT 24 HRS AND STALL
OUT JUST S OF RED RIVER. JUST ENOUGH SLY COMPONENT TO 850 MB WIND
FIELDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SUGGEST HIR THAN MOS POPS INTO
THU NIGHT...THEN WILL GO HI POPS FRI AS WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP AS
BNDRY TO SOUTH BEGINS LIFTING NWD AND MAIN UPR SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT AND ACRS FCST AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM:
MAIN PROBLEMS WILL DEAL WITH LATE AFTN HIR INSTBY AND SVR STORMS
FORMING ALG TWO DISTINCT OUTFLOW BNDRYS ACRS WRN FCST AREA THROUGH
SUNSET.  AS MAIN FNTL BNDRY SINKS SWD...TRAINING ECHOES (AS WAS CASE
ACRS SERN KS TODAY) COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS INTO PTNS OF FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AND AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION OVERRIDES SLOWLY ADVANCING SFC WMFNTL
BNDRY.  DUE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER SERN KS TODAY...MEDIA INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO POTNL MAINSTEM RIVER RISES COMING
DOWN OUT OF KS INTO FAR NERN OK DURG NEXT 18 HRS.  MAINSTEM FLOOD
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW (PARTICULARLY IN THE NEOSHO
BASIN).  WL CONT TO MONITOR THIS SO STAY TUNED.

IN THE EXTENDED:
LOOK FOR MAIN SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY EJECT OUT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED DURG LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND AND A
GRADUAL WARMUP INTO MON.

FCSTID = 14
TUL   61  72  56  70 /  60  50  50  70
FSM   65  78  58  75 /  40  50  50  60
MLC   64  78  60  75 /  50  50  50  70
BVO   58  70  54  69 /  60  50  50  70
FYV   58  70  55  70 /  60  50  50  60
IDB   65  83  60  77 /  30  40  40  60
BYV   58  70  55  70 /  60  50  50  60
MIO   57  70  54  69 /  60  50  50  70
MKO   61  72  56  70 /  60  50  50  70
F10   61  72  56  70 /  60  50  50  70
HHW   65  83  60  77 /  30  40  40  60

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE OF ISOLD LOCALLY SVR
	STORMS THIS EVENING IN WRN FCST AREA
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF A
MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH TO OZARK LINE.

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLHAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD NEARLY STALLED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...IF A STORM
FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY RECOVER. BY THIS EVENING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MORNING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...
AFTER THE EVENING HOURS INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF A
MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH TO OZARK LINE.

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLHAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD NEARLY STALLED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...IF A STORM
FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY RECOVER. BY THIS EVENING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MORNING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...
AFTER THE EVENING HOURS INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
526 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    SLICK                     OK   2 INCH HAIL
09/30/98   CREEK

0523 PM    SLICK                     OK   70 MPH TSTM GUST
09/30/98   CREEK                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS BETWEEN SLICK
                                          AND BEGGS

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
526 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    SLICK                     OK   2 INCH HAIL
09/30/98   CREEK

0523 PM    SLICK                     OK   70 MPH TSTM GUST
09/30/98   CREEK                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS BETWEEN SLICK
                                          AND BEGGS

STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
526 PM CDT WED SEP 30 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    SLICK                     OK   2 INCH HAIL
09/30/98   CREEK

0523 PM    SLICK                     OK   70 MPH TSTM GUST
09/30/98   CREEK                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS 2 MILES EAST OF
                                          SLICK