Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 210900
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES

SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO FIRED IN FAVORED
EXIT REGION OF WEAKENING 60 KT UPPER JET OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS NOTED JUST SOUTH OF KS BORDER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OK ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  WITH JET
STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST...AND WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY ALONG OUR KS BORDER COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SURFACE COLD FRONT NOTED THIS MORNING FROM NEAR AMARILLO...TO
WICHITA...TO CHANUTE.  BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS WESTERN
TX...BUT IS STILL SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS.  THE
FRONT MAY GET A FINAL WEAK SHOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BACKDOOR INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE PASSES.  WITH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...WILL MENTION SMALL POPS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.  AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT TONIGHT AND MOVES EAST...EXPECT MOST OF
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO FIRE NORTH OF THE KS BORDER THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES.  ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM
COME TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH) AND WITH LITTLE TO HANG OUR HAT
ON...DONT EXPECT TO CARRY ANY SIGNIFICANT MENTION OF RAIN AFTER
TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH WE WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS ALONG KS BORDER
COUNTIES WHERE WE MAY GET CLIPPED).

STILL PERUSING EXTENDED GUIDANCES...ALTHOUGH FROM WHAT WEVE SEEN SO
FAR DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE.

FCSTID = 14

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TUL   92  69  90  67 /  20  20   5   5
FSM   92  68  91  68 /  10   5   5   5
MLC   93  71  94  71 /  10   5   5   5
BVO   92  66  87  65 /  30  30  20   5
FYV   89  64  84  64 /  20  20   5   5
IDB   93  69  94  70 /  10   5   5   5
BYV   89  64  84  64 /  20  20   5   5
MIO   88  64  83  63 /  30  30  20   5
MKO   93  71  92  70 /  20  10   5   5
F10   93  71  92  70 /  20  10   5   5
HHW   93  71  94  71 /  10   5   5   5

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-44.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT WHERE SUFFICIENT LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS...THEY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.

THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAKE
IT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE THREAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION. THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE
UPDATED AT 1PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-44.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT WHERE SUFFICIENT LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS...THEY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.

THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAKE
IT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE THREAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION. THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE
UPDATED AT 1PM THIS AFTERNOON.