Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 423, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 1, 1998Osage County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 1, 1998, 6:59 PM CDT for Osage County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 1, 1998, 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 1998, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
46 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Whole counties

County Osage County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 1998-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 1998-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2597 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

537 
WUUS54 KTSA 020000 RRA
SVRTUL
OKC113-020045-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 657 PM...RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF
  PAWHUSKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
  PERSHING
  BARNSDALL

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE
  EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA.

BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 1, 3:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 3:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION?
TEMPERATURES

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT PERSISTENCE IS STILL
THE BEST BET.  FIRST PROBLEM IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL WORK EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  MESONET SHOWS
CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST WITH VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  WILL NOT PLAN ON LEAVING ANY EVENING POPS...BUT
WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.

T.S. EARL DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL AFFECT THE AREA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERLY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUD
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  BASICALLY IF EARL EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH IT
WILL LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND WILL FOREVER REMAIN
EAST OF US.  BUT THE MOST LIKELY EVENT IS THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SWEPT WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS OR MEXICAN COAST AROUND
SOUTH SIDE OF THAT ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH.  DESPITE THE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF EARL'S CIRCULATION...THE ETA DOES NOT SHOW
ANY CONSIDERABLE COOLING AT 850 MB.  THEREFORE WILL GO WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

AS FOR MOS TEMPERATURES...WILL GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND
STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO LOWS.

EXTENDED FORECAST IS MUDDLED BY MODELS HANDLING OF EARL...SO THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS LITTLE GO ON FOR POPS AT THIS TIME.  ONCE
MODELS GET A HANDLE ON EARL HOPEFULLY THE PICTURE WILL CLEAR UP SOME.

FCSTID = 19
TUL   67  99  68  99 /   5   5   0   0
FSM   69  98  68  97 /   5   5   5   5
MLC   65  99  67  98 /   5   5   5   5
BVO   64  99  64  99 /   5   5   0   0
FYV   61  91  60  90 /   5   5   0   0
IDB   66  99  67  98 /   5   5   5   5
BYV   61  91  60  90 /   5   5   0   0
MIO   63  97  62  97 /   5   5   0   0
MKO   67  99  68  99 /   5   5   0   0
F10   67  99  68  99 /   5   5   0   0
HHW   66  99  67  98 /   5   5   5   5

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: NO PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.