Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Tulsa, OK
NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 1998, 8:05 PM CDT for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 1998, 8:05 PM CDT (01:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 1998, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 25 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tulsa, OK
- Area
- Whole counties
County Madison County, AR
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 153 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -113 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2030 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
920 WUUS54 KTSA 100105 RRA SVRTUL ARC087-100130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 805 PM CDT THU JUL 9 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS * UNTIL 830 PM CDT * AT 803 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PETTIGREW...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. * SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE... RURAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF PETTIGREW HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 3:36 PM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 3:36 PM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 336 PM CDT THU JUL 9 1998 PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY: POPS...WILL MCS STAY TO THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT? CAN'T EXACTLY SAY THAT WE ARE OVERWHELMED WITH CONFIDENCE WRT THE FIVE DAY FCST. FOR NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENCE WL BE BEST BET AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT MID/UPR LVL PATTERN. EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO FIRE SOMEWHERE TO THE NW TONIGHT. QUESTION IS...WL WEAKNESS IN MID/UPR RIDGE DEVELOP TO ALLOW BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW AND THINK THAT UPR RIDGE WL HOLD ENOUGH TO KEEP MAIN SHOW N AND NE OF OUR ZONES THRU FRI...BUT WL CARRY SOME CHC POPS ALG KS BORDER. EXPECT OUTFLOW BNDRY FM PASSING COMPLEX TO THE N TO AGAIN TRAVERSE NRN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING AND SET UP ACRS SERN ZONES BY THE TIME MAX HEATING GET THINGS BUBBLING. WL CARRY CHC POPS ALG KS BORDER TOMORROW MORNING...AND AGAIN IN THE SERN ZONES WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONE WL SET UP IN AFTN HEATING (MUCH LIKE TODAY). ETA/NGM/AVN SHOW UPR RIDGE RETROGRADING A BIT TO THE W SAT ALLOWING US TO COME MORE UNDER INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW BY SAT. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS PATTERN ALL WEEK. WL CARRY A CHC POP FOR SATURDAY...BUT GENL PATTERN BY SAT STILL A BIT MURKY. IN FACT...THE REST OF THE FIVE DAY FCST REMAINS A BIT MURKY. GIVEN OVERALL POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MEDIUM MODELS PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SEE NO GOOD REASON FOR MAIN UPR RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE AS FAR W AS THEY ADVERTISE. CURRENT OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD A WHILE LONGER. THIS MEANS THAT ANYTHING THAT FIRES WL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLD/WDLY SCT AT BEST WITH MOST SPOTS REMAINING DRY. NOT MUCH TO HANG OUR HAT ON...SO THINK WE WL HOLD ONTO IT A WHILE AND KEEP DRY EXTENDED GOING. FCSTID = 14 VERY PRELIM NUMBERS... TUL 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 30 FSM 77 99 75 98 / 20 30 10 30 MLC 78 100 76 99 / 10 20 10 20 BVO 76 95 76 95 / 30 30 30 40 FYV 75 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 40 IDB 78 100 76 99 / 10 30 10 20 BYV 75 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 40 MIO 76 94 75 93 / 30 30 30 40 MKO 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 30 F10 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 30 HHW 78 100 76 99 / 10 30 10 20 .TUL... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. -------------------- EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT: SYNOPTIC PATTERN: MODERATE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPECTED MESOSCALE PATTERN: MODERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY MORNING GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SCT CONV PRECIP HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL NGM CONFIDE@NCE: 4 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 ETA CONFIDENCE: 5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 AVN CONFIDENCE: 3 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 FCST CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 MOST USEFUL TOOL: SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS BEST MODEL FIELD: 700-500 MB HGTS
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 7:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Sebastian | 26 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.