Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 182111
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?

CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS E OK ALONG SFC FRONT...AND WOULD
EXPECT FURTHUR DEVELOPMENT IN SERN OK ZNS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN INSTABILITY AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
MODELS PROG FRONT TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS NW AR EXTENDING THROUGH SE
OK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WASHING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AFTER
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NRN ZNS TOMORROW NIGHT...ETA DUMPS SOME PRECIP IN
RESPONSE TO A WK S/W BRUSHING THE AREA. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE LTR PDS. H5 RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE FA WITH
TIME...THIS AND WARMING H7 TEMPS LOOKS LIKE DRY HOT WX FOR WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY WITH THE NRN ZNS GETTING A SLIGHT MENTION SUN
NITE AND EARLY MON MORN AS MODELS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION(LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING).

FCSTID = 23
TUL   71  94  74  94 /  30  10  20   0
FSM   72  94  72  95 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   72  94  73  94 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   67  94  72  94 /  30  10  20   0
FYV   67  92  69  91 /  40  10  20   0
IDB   73  94  72  95 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   67  92  69  91 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   70  94  73  93 /  40  10  20   0
MKO   72  94  73  94 /  40  10   0   0
F10   71  94  74  94 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   73  94  72  95 /  40  10   0   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

---------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  3 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  0 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    5 N CLAYTON               OK   1 INCH HAIL
06/18/98   PUSHMATAHA

1030 PM    1 W WHITESBORO            OK   WIND DAMAGE
06/18/98   LE FLORE                       TREE LIMB DOWN ACROSS ROAD
                                          AND TREES KNOCKED DOWN
                                          JUST WEST OF WHITESBORO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    STIGLER                   OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/98   HASKELL

0955 PM    STIGLER                   OK   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/18/98   HASKELL                        LARGE TREE LIMBS KNOCKED
                                          DOWN.