Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 042042
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT THU JUN 4 1998

SFC BNDRY ACRS THE AREA HAS MOVD LTL THRU THE DAY.  AT 20Z BNDRY
STRETCHED FRM FAR NW CORNER OF AR...TO NEAR MKO...TO NORTH OF
MLC...THEN ON ACRS S-CNTL PART OF STATE.  TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR
90 SOUTH OF THE BNDRY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M/U 70S...SO ATMOS HAS
BECM VRY UNSTABLE.  CAP HAS KEPT TSTM DVLPMNT OUT OF ERN OK/NW AR
THUS FAR...BUT WITH CAP CONTG TO WEAKEN...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DVLPG
INTO THE AREA OVR THE NXT HR OR SO.  WL MENTION PSBL SVR FOR THIS
EVNG MAINLY IN ZNS ALONG AND AHD OF THE FNT.  FNT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO ONCE AGN PUSH SEWRD LATER TNGT AS S/WV MOVES OUT OF THE
SW...AND ALSO AS CONVCTN HELPS PULL BNDRY ON THRU THE AREA.

WL LIMIT POPS TO FAR SRN AND FAR ERN ZNS FOR FRI...THEN LOOKS DRY FOR
FRI NGT AND SAT WITH FNT ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND SFC HIGH
CONTG TO BUILD IN.  COOLER TEMPS WILL PROVIDE A NICE CHG FOR ALL OF
THE AREA OVR THE NXT FEW DAYS...AND LIKE THE COOLER FAN GUID.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   60  75  55  70 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   68  80  56  73 /  50  30  10   0
MLC   65  80  58  75 /  40  20  10   0
BVO   58  75  52  70 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   60  75  55  70 /  60  10   0   0
IDB   70  84  60  80 /  30  30  10   0
BYV   61  75  55  69 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   59  75  53  70 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   60  75  55  71 /  40  10   0   0
F10   60  75  55  70 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   69  82  59  78 /  30  30  10   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT THU JUN 4 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THIS AREA IS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI OKLAHOMA TO STIGLER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM STIGLER TO ALTUS ARKANSAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAINOLA TO
SEMINOLE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO CLAYTON TO ZAFRA IN
LE FLORE COUNTY.

AT 1PM A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION FROM WETUMKA TO
SILOAM SPRINGS AND ON EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER.  AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND INTERSECTED THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF EUREKA SPRINGS.  THE FRONT AND
THAT PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WELL NORTH OF
THE FRONT AS A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WAS LIFTING THE UNSTABLE OVER THE FRONT AND FORMING
STORMS ABOVE THE CAP IN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH TIME
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THAT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 3PM AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
FRONT MAXIMIZE LIFT AND BREAK THE CAP.  WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT
AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MUCH.
THEREFORE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  WIND PROFILES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH A
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS BASED
SOLELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP.  ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WOULD ALSO HAVE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
QUESTION ABOUT THE CAP BREAKING.

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING
THE RISK OF TORNADOES.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME...AGENCIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT THU JUN 4 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THIS AREA IS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI OKLAHOMA TO STIGLER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM STIGLER TO ALTUS ARKANSAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAINOLA TO
SEMINOLE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO CLAYTON TO ZAFRA IN
LE FLORE COUNTY.

AT 1PM A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE REGION FROM WETUMKA TO
SILOAM SPRINGS AND ON EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER.  AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND INTERSECTED THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF EUREKA SPRINGS.  THE FRONT AND
THAT PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WELL NORTH OF
THE FRONT AS A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WAS LIFTING THE UNSTABLE OVER THE FRONT AND FORMING
STORMS ABOVE THE CAP IN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH TIME
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THAT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 3PM AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
FRONT MAXIMIZE LIFT AND BREAK THE CAP.  WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT
AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MUCH.
THEREFORE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  WIND PROFILES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH A
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS BASED
SOLELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP.  ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WOULD ALSO HAVE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
QUESTION ABOUT THE CAP BREAKING.

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING
THE RISK OF TORNADOES.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME...AGENCIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.