Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 1998

...MCS POTENTIAL MAIN CONCERN BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS CONVECTION IN COLORADO LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS
TONIGHT. UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN
COLORADO. HIGHER DEW POINTS/LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO INCREASE
PER ETA MODEL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UPPER IMPULSE MOVING INTO AREA AS
WELL. ETA MODEL PREFERRED ALBEIT OVERDONE IN STRENGTH OF UPPER
IMPULSE. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER MOIST
INFLOW INTO DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. GRIDDS MCS MOVEMENT MACRO INDICATES SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST OVERNIGHT TO REACH EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z.
THUS WILL RAISE ONGOING POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ALL AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT SOUTHERN PTN OF CWA COULD SEE A
LITTLE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS HIGH THETA-E AIR BEGINS TO RETURN
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. LOW POPS IN ORDER THERE THIS
EVENING ALSO.

ANOTHER THREAT FOR AN MCS TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. ETA AGAIN
PREFERRED WITH NGM MOVING WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO FAST
ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TONIGHT. AVM APPEARS TO
DRY LOW LVLS TOO MUCH BY TUESDAY. MCS MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SO ANY DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WOULD ONCE
AGAIN PUT OUR CWA IN THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SAME IDEA PER THEIR QPF DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS.

AS FAR AS FLASH FLOOD THREAT...INDICES STILL RATHER HIGH EXCEPT
ALONG ERN COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO BEAR WATCHING ON EVENING SHIFT. IF GOOD
WIDESPREAD RAINS OCCUR TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS COULD POSE A MUCH
LARGER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...I.E. TOMORROW NIGHT.

NGM MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXCEPT LEANING
TjOWARD WARMER FAN GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY. EXTENDED HOT HIGH AND DRY
WITH CAPPING EXPECTED.

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