Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...

ELEVATED CONVECTION AT H850 MB TO H700 MB RESULTING IN AN EARLY
START TO CONVECTION TODAY.  FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THIS SHOULD
INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO PUSHES
EAST ACROSS STATE.  GOING MORE WITH ETA SOLUTION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.  SOME CONCERN NGM/AVIATION SLOWER WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE A
FEATURE OVER EASTERN KS BY 36 HOURS WHILE THE ETA PUSHES IMPULSE
INTO MISSOURI...BUT...HAS A TRAILING LOBE.  WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAVE UPPER POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.  PROBLEM IS WORDING ON THE EVENING
FORECAST AS ONGOING PCPN SHOULD END BUT LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW TRENDS ARE GOING. TEMPERATURE WISE
GOING NUMBERS OF 55 TO 60 LOOK FINE.

ON MEMORIAL DAY HAVE ENDED PCPN CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH TRAILING LOBE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...KEPT POPS FOR
THE WHOLE DAY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.  LATER PERIODS
MODELS SHOWING RH FIELDS ON THE DECREASE AND PCPN CHANCES STAYING TO
THE WEST.  PARTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY SUNNY TUESDAY.
GIVEN LOWS THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO FAN LOWS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80 TO
85 DEGREE RANGE LOOK OK.

.TOP...NONE

FRANTZ