Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
419 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND HOW MUCH
TO COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...

BUSY WITH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA ALTHOUGH JUST BEFORE SENDING ZONES SOME ACTIVITY HAD REDEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWEST MO AND LIGHTNING DISPLAY SHOWING ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS 07-08Z.  MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH UPPER FEATURES AND
SHOWING ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OUT OVER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GOING MORE WITH ETA SOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
FOR TODAY INITIAL CONCERN WAS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THOUGHT
BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN INSTABILITY AND ETA SHOWING CAPES 2-3THOUSAND
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA...COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  Q-VECTOR SUPPORT WEAK DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TONIGHT...ETA SHOWING STRONG H850 MB WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVING ACROSS CWA.
UPPED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S LOOK
FINE FOR NOW GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION.  ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN
BRANCH SAGS SOUTH AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY...ANOTHER UPPER
FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA.  ALL HELPING TO DROP SURFACE
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS AREA AND KEEP DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE AREA.  CONCERN AGAIN IS HOW MUCH nTO COOL TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TO LOWER 80S IN THE EAST CENTRAL LOOK LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO
START.

.TOP...NONE

FRANTZ

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292220-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT .

SYNOPSIS:  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JW