Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 1998

...TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PRESSING PROBLEM...

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.  12+ 700MB
TEMP MAY PROVIDE SOME CAPPING UNTIL SUNSET.  WITH DELAY OF
RIGHT-REAR 300MB WIND MAX UNTIL 06Z AND TIMING OF H500 VORTICITY
ADVECTION AREAS AND PASSAGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...THINK THAT MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE CWA WITH A DELAY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

LOOKS LIKE EVENING SEVERE ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHCENTRAL
COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT LOSS OF HEATING WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST.  EMPHASIS THEN TURNS TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.

ETA IS THE MOST SOUTHERN OF THE CDFNT POSITIONS AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH
THE NGM/AVN SLOWER (STILL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH
LOOKS BETTER).

CONSIDERING THE 850/700 OMEGA PATTERNS ALONG WITH CDFNT AND H500
POSITIONS...WILL GO PRIMARILY WITH NGM.  ALL MODELS PAINT A 925/850
THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EASTCENTRAL KS COUNTIES AT 06Z
THEN PUSH IT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z WITH BEST THETA-E CONVERGENCE
IS AT 06Z.  TIME SECTIONS SHOW CLOUDS HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH ABOUT NOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES GOT OUT OF HAND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
SOME WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY.  BY SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CREEP CLOSE OR ABOVE 90.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE.