Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 PM CDT MON AUG 3 1998

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
   AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT BISECTING KANSAS WITH WIND SHIFT MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ST. SFC MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE MAX
NOTED ALONG BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO ORIENTED IN SAME
GENERAL REGION. WATER VAPOR SATL LOOP SHOWS VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS OVER
WRN KS PIVOTING AROUND BASE OF STRONG H5 UPR LO OVR ERN SD. THIS
FEATURE AND FRONT AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT NOW OVER ERN 1/2 OF CWA
WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS FNT IS SLOW
MOVING. WILL INCLUDE SCT TSTMS THIS REGION...BUT PCPN CHANCES FURTHER
WEST APPEAR LESS LIKELY ATTM.

ALL 3 MODELS SIMILAR THRU 48 HRS WITH GRADUAL SEWRD MOVEMENT OF H5
CIRCULATION CENTER INTO SERN IA BY 48 HOURS. LO LVL WINDS SHIFT INTO
THE WEST AND NW ACROSS CWA BEHIND SFC FNT LATER TONIGHT AND TUES...
SO LO LVLS TO SLOWLY COOL AND STABILIZE. BUT COLDER MID LVL TEMPS AND
STEEPER LAPSER RATES TO AFFECT CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WEAK VORT MAXS MOVE AROUND UPR LVL LO. SOME
SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTN OVER NEBRASKA IN MID LVL COOL POOL AND
APPROACHING VORT MAX. THIS CYCLONIC MID LVL FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN
DEVELOPING CU/SC DURING DAYTIME HOURS-ESP ON WED WHEN H85/H7 THERMAL
TROF MOVES ACROSS CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BOTH FAN AND FWC GUID
LOOKING A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPS. UPSTREAM TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S OVER CNTRL NEB WITH READINGS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER NORTH. THIS AIRMASS UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO
GUID MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THIS TREND YET. FOR POPS...FEEL ETA
MODEL LOOKS BEST IN KEEPING MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF FA CLOSER TO LOW LVL BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY AXIS.
WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS ALL ZONES TUE AND WED FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER H7/H5 GEOPOTENTIAL/THERMAL TROFS.

.TOP...NONE.

BARLOW

KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059-032305-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT MON AUG 3 1998

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR SENECA TO WEST OF EMPORIA. THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OSKALOOSA
TO TOPEKA AND EMPORIA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SHEAR
PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE AIRMASS
WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

BARLOW