Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 1998

...PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THEN TEMPERATURES MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...

19Z SURFACE MAP AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES WERE CLEARLY SHOWING
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AND NO CLOUDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT CU TO
THE EAST.  LAPS AND ADAP WERE TARGETING SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH BEST
INSTABILITY AND THATS WHERE CONVECTION IS FIRING.  THERE WERE
SEVERAL ENHANCED LINES OF CU TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA BUT NOTHING HAS POPPED AS OF YET.

MODELS ALL SHOW GREATEST PUSH OF COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN KANSAS BEFORE
WASHING IT OUT.  WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
FIRES ALONG THE FRONT SHOULDNT MOVE WITH MUCH PACE AND SHOULDNT
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES VERY LONG.  FRONT COULD NUDGE INTO NORTHCENTRAL
ZONES SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THERE.  FURTHER EAST WILL CUT
POPS INTO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSES INTO THE PLAINS FROM UPPER HIGH
OVER WESTERN U.S.  LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
BY TUESDAY.  LOW LEVEL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S WOULD ALSO SUGGEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG
THAT WOULD ALSO HINDER MAXIMUM WARMUP.  THEREFORE WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES UPWARD BUT NOT AS HIGH AS FWC NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE FAN.

.TOP..NONE.