Tornado Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
230 AM EST FRI JAN 23 1998

CURRENT...LDS SHOWING AREA OF FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FM 50 MI
W OF TPA...TRAILING SW INTO GULF. THIS LINE OF TSTMS SEEMS TO BE GRAD
WEAKING AS IT ENTERS INTO COOLER SHELF WATERS. HOWEVER...SW PORTION OF
LINE OVR FARTHER W INTO GULF STILL VERY STRONG. 88D PICKING UP LARGE MASS
OF RA WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS NOW ABT 25 MILES WEST OF CST. EXPECT RA TO REACH
THE COAST ARND 3 AM.

FCST...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF APPROACHING SQUALLINE. NGM
TRYS TO WEAKEN N END OF LINE AS IT MOVES EAST...FOCUSING CONVECTION OVR
S FA LATER TODAY. ETA GENERALLY KEEPS A CONTINUOUS LINE OF PRECIP MOVING
EAST WITH BRUNT OF PRECIP OVR N 1/2 OF FA. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SAT/88D
AND LDS...SEEMS NGM MAY BE ON RIGHT TRACK WITH BEST PRECIP AT S END OF
LINE. EITHER WAY...LINE OF SHWS/TSTMS REACHES CST BEFORE SUNRISE...MOVING
SLOWLY SE INTO S FA BY LATE AFTN TODAY. BEST VEERING/HELICITIES WILL BE
THRU 18Z THIS AFTN. MAIN TROF AXIS AT 500 MB REMAINS WEST OF AREA THRU 36
HRS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG VORT ADVECTIONS. THUS CONFIDENCE IN
CHC FOR SVR WX STILL LOW TODAY. AREA OF RA MOVING INTO FA EARLY THIS MRNG
CUD ALSO HELP KEEP ATMOS MORE STABLE INTO EARLY AFTN...AT LEAST FROM SRQ
NORTH. WILL ISSUE 5 AM HWO CONTINUING TO HIT THRET OF STRONG WINDS AND
ISOLD SVR TODAY...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY HVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WILL CONTEMPLATE
NEED FOR FFA...ESPEC S 1/2 OF FA WHERE PRECIP CUD LINGER LONGER. WILL COORD
WITH MIA IF NECESSARY. ETA AND NGM KEEP MRH VALUES HI THRU 36 HRS...THEN
DECR AFT AS SFC FRNT BEGINS TO FINALLY PENETRATE SOUTH. THUS SKIES LIKELY TO
REMAIN CLDY THRU TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS THRU LATE NIGHT. ON SAT...TURNING
COOLER WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-
870-873-876-231535-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST FRI JAN 23 1998

...A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH
OF SARASOTA BEFORE 7 AM...THEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA
BEFORE 8 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND BY
LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKELAND TO SARASOTA.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG STORMS TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY WIDE SPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
ENCOUNTER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING WATER LEVELS.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS. DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING MAY STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR RADIO/TELEVISION/CABLE STATIONS
IN THE EVENT ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-
870-873-876-231535-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST FRI JAN 23 1998

...A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH
OF SARASOTA BEFORE 7 AM...THEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA
BEFORE 8 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND BY
LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKELAND TO SARASOTA.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG STORMS TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY WIDE SPREAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
ENCOUNTER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING WATER LEVELS.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS. DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

REMEMBER...LIGHTNING MAY STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR RADIO/TELEVISION/CABLE STATIONS
IN THE EVENT ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

MORALES