Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
238 AM EST THU MAR 19 1998

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM SEBRING TO VENICE HAS BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AS BOW TYPE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS HIGHLANDS
COUNTY HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHEAST.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF VENICE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF THE LINE
POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK SLOWLY NORTH.  RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS OVER MANATEE
AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THIS LINE AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 75 NM FROM
VENICE NORTH TO CEDAR KEY.  GOOD U/L DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AHEAD OF AN U/L TROUGH WHICH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING NORTH OF AN ENGLEWOOD TO NORTHERN LAKE OKEECHOBEE LINE.  AS
THE U/L TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...U/L
DIFFLUENCE WILL DECREASE AND DVV WILL DEVELOP IN NVA REGION BEHIND
TROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AND SKIES BECOMING VARIABLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY.  COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WITH A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG U/L DYNAMICS
WITH GOOD U/L DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPING.  THE LINE WILL PUSH EAST AND
APPROACH THE FA AROUND NOON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
NORTH OF TPA.

SUGGESTIONS...WOULD INCREASE POPS TODAY AND FRIDAY TO AT LEAST LIKELY
FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY INCLUDING THE INTERIOR.
CHANCE POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES TODAY INCREASING TO GOOD
CHANCE ON FRIDAY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-191700-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EST THU MAR 19 1998

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
SARASOTA COUNTY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DESOTO AND
HARDEE COUNTIES.  THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND RIVER
STAGES TO RISE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OR
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  BOATERS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.  MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THIS MORNINGS RUSH HOUR.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AND
CYPRESS CREEK.  SEE SEPARATE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-191700-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 AM EST THU MAR 19 1998

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE HAS CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
SARASOTA COUNTY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DESOTO AND
HARDEE COUNTIES.  THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND RIVER
STAGES TO RISE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OR
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  BOATERS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.  MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THIS MORNINGS RUSH HOUR.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AND
CYPRESS CREEK.  SEE SEPARATE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING.

OGLESBY