Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
144 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE NOW NOTED ON 88D AND SATL LOOPS EXTNDG
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA SWWD INTO THE ERN GLFMX. STRONG UPR LVL JET
STREAK...RICH THETA-E AIRMASS AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY HELPING TO
MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
OVER THE ERN GLFMX. AS DVLPG SFC LOW NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN MS CONTS
MOVG N TODAY PRE-FRONTAL BNDRY AND TRAILING CDFNT FROM SFC LOW WILL
CONT TO SWING EWD. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF JET OVHD WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND ANY SVR WX ACRS THE FA THROUGH MID
MORNING NRN/CNTRL ZNS AND MID TO LATE MORNG ACRS MY SRN MOST ZONES
BEFORE ENTIRE AREA SHIFTS EWD WITH DRIER AIRMASS MOVG INTO THE CWA
AS FLOW BECOME WLY. WITH THIS THINKING...FEEL FFA (FLOOD WATCH CAN
BE DROPPED IN 5 AM PACKAGE. IN ADDITION...WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING
WLY AND LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME BY LATE MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
CONVECTION...CAN ALSO PROBABLY GET AWAY WITH DROPPING THE WIND
ADVISORY AND CFW (COASTAL FLOOD WATCHS AND WARNINGS)AS WELL. AS FOR
WORDING OF FIRST PERIOD...WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY CAT POPS WITH MENTION
OF SOME POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECMG
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE PM HRS AS MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT CDFNT WILL CONT MOVG THRU THE SRN MOST PENINSULA WITH YET
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THRU THE N-CNTRL PEN OVERNIGHT...
BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT MSTR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER PRECIP. ON
WEDNESDAY SFC LOW NOW OVER MS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH UPR
TROUGH WELL TO THE NE WITH WEAK UPR RDG AND SFC HI BUILDING INTO
THE FA WHICH WILL RETURN SUNSHINE TO REGION. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
NO REAL CAA EXPECTED IN WAKE OF FRONT SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS. FAN/FWC NUMBERS ARE ONCE AGAIN VERY CLOSE SO A BLEND
OF THE TWO LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE ENTIRE FA.  THANKS FOR COORD
AND THOUGHTS MIA.

MCMICHAEL

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