Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
245 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998

HURRICANE EARL IS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PANAMA CITY FL ATTM.  A RAIN
BAND EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY TO 100 MILES WEST OF SARASOTA.  THIS BAND IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
WITH THIS RAINBAND...AT 1 AM CEDAR KEY HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KTS AND
THE BUOY 100 MILES WEST OF BAYPORT HAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 31KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 39KTS AND 19 FOOT SEAS.  THIS ALSO MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STORM SURGE AS LEVY COUNTY HAS REPORTED RISING WATER AND A FEW
COASTAL ROADS UNDER WATER.  THE COAST GUARD AT YANKEETOWN REPORTS
TIDES RUNNING 5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND RISING.  THE STORM
SURGE WILL ADVANCE DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  CURRENT
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH TODAY FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES.  THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND NOON.  TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...AND PASCO
COUNTIES.  A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.  A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR
LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM.

MODEL DATA VERY POOR INITIALIZING EARL AND FORECAST TRENDS.  BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION...EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE TO THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST AROUND
SUNRISE AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND...OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES.  COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SHOWERS
TRAIN ALONG BAND.  AS EARL MOVES INLAND...THIS BAND COULD WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE.  BUT WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ANYWAY SO LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN FA.

OG4LESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
528 AM EDT THU SEP 3 1998

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ANCLOTE KEYS
   TO ENGLEWOOD...

AT 525 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
THE GAINESVILLE AREA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CITRUS COUNTY...THEN
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FOR MORE THAN 100 MILES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS LINE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WITHIN THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES OVER LAND AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER LEVY AND
CITRUS COUNTIES...WHERE TIDES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED TO BE ABOUT
6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE NEXT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE. SEE THE LASTEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM NLEVY COUNTY TO
SARASOTA COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS...AND BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
528 AM EDT THU SEP 3 1998

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ANCLOTE KEYS
   TO ENGLEWOOD...

AT 525 AM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
THE GAINESVILLE AREA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CITRUS COUNTY...THEN
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FOR MORE THAN 100 MILES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS LINE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WITHIN THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES OVER LAND AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER LEVY AND
CITRUS COUNTIES...WHERE TIDES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED TO BE ABOUT
6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE NEXT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE. SEE THE LASTEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM NLEVY COUNTY TO
SARASOTA COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS...AND BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

MORALES