Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
244 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

CURRENTLY...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES WCSB HAS ALREADY DVLPD AND
IS MOVG INLAND WITH ECSB JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. 88D NOW INDICATING
DVLPG CONVECTION ALONG WCSB JUST S OF OCF EXTNDG S TO E OF SRQ. AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE
OFF ALONG BOTH BOUNDARYS AS THEY CONT MOVG INLAND WITH BEST AREAL
COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OCCURS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION MID LVL STEERING
FLOW FROM THE N-NE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE BACK
TOWARD W-COASTAL ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HRS
THUS WOULD STILL OPT FOR EVENING WORDING OF POPS IN THESE AREAS SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH 40% POPS INTERIOR.

AS FOR THE FCST...NOT TO MANY CHANGES EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. WEAK SHORT WV
TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE SERN GLF STATES AND OFF THE SC/GA COAST THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACRS THE NRN MOST
PENINSULA ON SAT. AS IT DOES SO SFC RDG AXIS ACRS THE CNTRL PEN WL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH...THEN WILL BUILD BACK TO THE N ON SUNDAY. WITH
SFC TROUGH MOVG INTO THE NRN PENINSULA IN COMBINATION WITH PM SEA
BREEZE DVLPMT...POP CHANCES IN THESE AREAS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND TO SAY 30-40% RANGE. ELSEWHERE A CONTINUATION OF PM SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITH AROUND 40% POPS LOOKING GOOD
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONT BUT WCSB LIKELY
TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LWR 90S...BUT MID/UPR 90S
CONTG OVER THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES VALUES.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES...
...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF ALONG WITH MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. THE NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES...WITH "FEEL LIKE" TEMPERATURES OF BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES
ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND 105 TO 110 DEGREES INLAND LOCALES. IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...DRINK AMPLE WATER...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE...AND CURTAIL ANY PROLONGED STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY.

MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS VERY DRY WITH VEGETATION PRONE
TO THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE...SO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ANY FIRE
SOURCE.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PENINSULA.
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND POSSIBLE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR LOCATION MOVE 8INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES...
...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF ALONG WITH MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. THE NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES...WITH "FEEL LIKE" TEMPERATURES OF BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES
ALONG COASTAL AREAS...AND 105 TO 110 DEGREES INLAND LOCALES. IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...DRINK AMPLE WATER...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE...AND CURTAIL ANY PROLONGED STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY.

MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS VERY DRY WITH VEGETATION PRONE
TO THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE...SO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH ANY FIRE
SOURCE.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PENINSULA.
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND POSSIBLE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR LOCATION MOVE 8INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

MCMICHAEL