Tornado Warning 43, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998

CRNT KEVX/KEOX 88D/VIS SATL LOOPS CONTS TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE SQUALL
LINE MOVG SLWLY EWD ACRS AQQ RIVER INTO EXTRM WRN BIG BEND/SW GA.
WNDS IN WAKE OF THIS SQUALL LINE HAVE SHIFTED TO S/SWLY (PANAMA CTY
BCH RPTD SUSTAINED 25-30 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 35 KTS). CONCERNED ABOUT
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG BIG BEND COASTLINE AS STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS THRU NXT 24 HRS AND HAVE ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
ETA/NGM SFC WND FIELDS INDICATE SUSTAINED 15-25 KT S/SSWLY ONSHORE
COMPONENT THRU WED. AVN-BASED SSG VALUES OF 2-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 FT AT HIGH TIDES. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS SITUATION THRU THE EVENG/OVRNGHT HRS.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHORT-RANGE FCST CYCLES...ETA/AVN HAVE BETTER
HANDLE ON REMAINS OF T.D. GEORGES THAN NGM. VORT CENTER PROGGED TO
DRIFT EWD ACRS SRN AL INTO SW GA WED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RAFL
AMOUNTS OVER CWA AS WV IMAGERY INDICATED SOME DRYING ENTRAINED INTO
WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF SYSTEM. BASED ON 88D REFL TRENDS...THINK
HVST AMTS WL BE OVR ERN PORTIONS OF FL PH/SE AL INTO SW GA/FL BIG
BEND THRU WED WHERE HIEST VERT MOTION/MEAN RHS DEPICTED.

DRYING EVIDENT IN MID-LEVELS LATE WED NGHT/THU AS SUBSIDENCE INCRS
IN WAKE OF VORT CENTER/SFC TROF. CATEGORICAL POPS ACCEPTED ALL
AREAS TNGT...TRENDING DOWN TO LIKELY WED...FOLLOWED BY CHC CATS WED
NGHT/THU. PREFER FWC TEMPS OVER FAN/S SLGTLY COOLER BIAS. HIGHS
80-85 WED AND UPR 80S-NEAR 90 THU...LOWS MID-UPR 70S TNGT AND UPR
60S-LOW 70S WED NGHT.

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ALZ065>069-FLZ007>015-017>019-026>029-034-039-GAZ121>131-142>148-
155>161-GMZ750-755-770-775-292100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE...

AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGES WAS LOCATED 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MAY EXCEED 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING COASTLINES (ST MARKS TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER).  SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO
GEORGIA.  THIS MAY GENERATE STORM SURGES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
MINOR BEACH EROSION.  A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES...COASTAL FLOODING AND
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE FORWARDED TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT
850-942-8999.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGES...VISIT
THE WEB SITES ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.FSU.EDU/ OR
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/.

#8

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>015-017>019-026>029-034-039-GAZ121>131-142>148-
155>161-GMZ750-755-770-775-292100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE...

AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGES WAS LOCATED 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MAY EXCEED 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING COASTLINES (ST MARKS TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER).  SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO
GEORGIA.  THIS MAY GENERATE STORM SURGES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
MINOR BEACH EROSION.  A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES...COASTAL FLOODING AND
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE FORWARDED TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT
850-942-8999.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGES...VISIT
THE WEB SITES ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.FSU.EDU/ OR
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/.

#8