Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EST SAT MAR 7 1998

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING VORT MAX
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...CLOSING OFF AN UPPER CENTER
OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NRN TX TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT TOWARD THE OH VLY TOMORROW.  AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED COLD FRONT TO FORM OVER LWR MS VLY BY SUN
MORN THEN SWEEP QUICKLY EWD ACROSS GULF STATES.  AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SHOULD SEE TIGHTENING SFC AND 850 GRADIENT WHICH PROMISES TO
PUMP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE FA.  SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GENERALLY SLY AT 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PD.  SATELLITE IR
CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TOPS NRN FL/SRN AL/SRN GA...BUT NOW SEE
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST...WITH COOLING TOPS REAPPEARING OVER SRN
MS.  MOVEMENT ON SATELLITE APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NE...WHILE
MOVEMENT OF PCPN ON RADAR APPEARS MORE ELY...SO EXPECT INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER FA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES OF .50
TO .75 INCHES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER SRN MS...SO ETAS
PREDICTION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FA IS REASONABLE.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR THREAT FROM
FLOODING.  HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTERNOON...AS
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  AT THAT TIME SHOULD SEE HIGHES OMEGA
VALUES COUPLED WITH HIGHEST MEAN RH VALUES.  MOS AND ZONES LOOK
GOOD...WITH RESPECT TO BOTH POPS (90 TO 100% SAT AND 70 TO 90% SUN)
AND TEMPS (UPPER 60S SAT AND LOWER 70S SUN).