Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 1998

BIGGEST CONCERN THRU THIS FCST PRD WILL BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT DUE TO NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM SVR WX IN NRN GA. 88DS ALREADY DETECTING SOME
CONVECTION MOVG TO THE ESE ACRS E CNTRL AL AND HEADED FOR NRN PARTS
OF OUR GA CNTYS.

OTHERWISE MDLS SHOW THIS S/WV MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WTRS THRU
THE NXT 24 HRS...WITH SFC HI RIDGE AXIS STILL REMAINING ACRS THE
NRN GLF...AND UPR PRTN KEEPS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACRS SRN TIER OF
STATES THRU THE FCST PRD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES OR
SO FOR SAT AND SUN. IN ADDITION...MDLS ALSO KEEP MRH VALUES
GENERALLY ABOVE 50 PCNT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. C-BRZ TRIGGERED
TSTMS WILL DVLP EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND...AND CONSIDERING THE
INCREASED AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS...THINK THE
30-40 PCNT POPS FROM FWC NUMBERS SEEMS REASONABLE.

NOT MUCH DIFF BETWEEN FAN/FWC LOWS NEXT TWO NIGHTS...AND ONLY ABOUT
A CATEGORY DIFF FOR HIGHS. CONSIDERING THE TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS I THINK UPR 90S STILL LOOKS GOOD THRU THE WEEKEND...
BUT SOME PLACES MAY ONLY SEE MID 90S FOR SUN...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THEN.

MOLLERE