Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT THU JUN 18 1998

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN U.S.
FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE CENTER OF UPR HI RETROGRADING
TO OLD MEX BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. S/WV OVR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LIFTS NNE AND GETS ABSORBED BY BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. AS A RESULT...FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/TROF MOVG OVR THE TOP OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVR THE SE. A
VORT LOBE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO DROP SE INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI INTO ERLY SAT. A BAND OF
INCREASING MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ON MODELS ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
ABOUT 1.8 ACRS CNTRL AL AND GA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SE AL AND SW GA...AS INDICATED BY
ETA/NGM. ALTHOUGH...I WOULD NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30-40 PCNT FOR
POPS VALUES FOR THIS AREA...AND ABOUT 20 PCNT FOR FL PNHNDL AND BIG
BEND.

FWC TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT HIGH WEAKENS DRG THE NXT
24 HRS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE UPPER 90S A GOOD CALL FOR FRI AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LWR 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS...AND MID 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MOLLERE