Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
153 PM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR KMAF TO BETWEEN KSJT AND
KABI AT 1850Z...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. A VERY UNSTABLE CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH CAPES RUNNING AT OR ABOVE 3000. ALOFT...LONGWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH A SECOND WAVE DROPPING INTO ARIZONA.

GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FRONT MOVING EXTENDING
FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD AROUND 5 PM...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY MID EVENING.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL AID DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE SECOND WAVE KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVITY TOWARDS SUNRISE. THUS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS FAIRLY HIGH POPS
AREAWIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WHERE SQUALL
LINE DEVELOPMENT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S THIS MORNING. NGM MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS DO NOT LOOK UNREASONABLE.

MODELS SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING DURING THE DAY.
THINK THE ETA MAY BE UNDERDOING CLOUD COVER...AND WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARDS A NGM AND AVIATION BLEND...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
DURING THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL GO A TOUCH ABOVE
MOS FOR HIGHS.

ABI 0:54/070 43
JCT 060/071 73
SJT 057/072 42

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TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-061300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP GENERATE STORMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL. WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT... ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM MAY
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO TO
OZONA LINE.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.

07

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-061300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP GENERATE STORMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL. WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT... ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM MAY
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO TO
OZONA LINE.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.

07