Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
157 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BUILD INTO TX
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASES IN 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES. THE TRAIN OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THE PAST 2 DAYS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF WC TX...BUT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL BE THIS EVENING. 18Z ADAP ESTIMATED LIFTED
INDICES WERE -10 TO -12C OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF WC TX. THIS AREA IS
WEAKLY CAPPED AND EXPECT STORMS IN THIS REGION INITIALLY DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE. JTN PROFILER SHOWS UNIMPRESSIVE SPEED
SHEAR...SUGGESTING SLOW MOVING PULSE-TYPE STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL STORM OUTFLOW AND DAYTIME HAZE.
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE CONSERVATIVE FAN/FWC GUIDANCE...SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY.

ABI 065/091 21
SJT 065/092 21
JCT 067/092 1-

14

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-271100-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
223 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A ROBY TO MASON LINE...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK MID LEVEL THERMAL CAP IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK...WITH STORMS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.

14

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-271100-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECT TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A ROBY TO MASON LINE...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK MID LEVEL THERMAL CAP IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK...WITH STORMS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.

14

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-
139-140-154-155-168>170-271100-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECT TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A ROBY TO MASON LINE...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK MID LEVEL THERMAL CAP IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK...WITH STORMS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
SATSPSSAT. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED PM TO AM LAST REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TEXAS
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   STATE...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1255 AM    8 NE STERLING CITY        TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/26/98   STERLING

0245 AM    6 W PAINT ROCK            TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/26/98   CONCHO