Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 1998

SURFACE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM SW AR INTO S TX NEAR
AUS THEN TO NEAR DRT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
CONTS TO PUSH EWD ACROSS AR BUT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM NE TX INTO
S TX. TSTMS ARE NOW MOVG NWD WITHIN THE LARGER AREA AS WAVE APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THIS WAVE DEVELOPING FRONT SHOULD
SLOW EVEN MORE. AVN AND NGM BOTH SLOWER THIS FORECAST PERIOD THAN ETA.
ETA TRIES TO PUSH FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE NGM AND AVN SLOW EVERYTHING WITH NGM THE SLOWEST.
WITH APPARENT WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS E TX AM MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW
NGM/AVN SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. MAIN LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD NOT MOVE
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE EARLY WED MORNING THEN SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ALONG WITH COOLING. WITH THIS LONG WAVE SLOW TO MOVE
OUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS WRN 2/3S
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ERN 1/3 OF CWA TO SEE GOOD CHANCE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TEMPS CAN GO CLOSE TO AVN
AND NGM GUIDANCE WHERE RAIN FALLS BUT ERN SECTIONS WILL NEED HIGHER
HIGHS TODAY. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF MAIN SYSTEM AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL NEED TO EXTEND FFA FOR NE TX INTO DEEP E TX AND CONT INTO
THE AFTN. WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND NW LA AND SW AR FFAS INTO THE AFTN
AND INCLUDE N CNTRL AND NE LA FOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

SHV 77/58/75/53 9510   MLU 83/62/76/57 7831   18