Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS San Diego, CA

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PST MON FEB 16 1998

                          ...SYNOPSIS...

A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM THE MOUNTAINS WEST TONIGHT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE LOWER SAN DIEGO RIVER TUESDAY UNTIL 6 PM. WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...TONIGHT TURNING TO
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE NOW
LEVEL WILL LOWER TO 4500 FT WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5 AND
7000 FEET AND UP TO 12 INCHS ABOVE 7000 FEET.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DECREASING SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

                         ...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN WITH RAIN
OVER MOST OF ORANGE COUNTY EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND OVER
WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.  PCPN REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE MOST OF THE
RAIN IS LIGHT BUT BOTH KSOX AND KNKX 88DS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO ORANGE COUNTY.  IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE ISLAND EFFECT BEING PICKED UP BY BOTH 88DS.
THE ISLAND EFFECT IS THE HIGHER DBZ SHOWING UP DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH
SANTA CATALINA AND SAN CLEMENTE ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO ORANGE COUNTY.
THE MAIN FRONT STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM VTU COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO
BETWEEN KNUC AND KNSI ISLANDS SO THE HEAVIER PCPN LIKELY TO BE IN
THAT AREA.  RAMSMDIS IR SHOWS THE COLDEST TOPS STILL TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT JUST BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY NTO ORANGE
AND NW SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

PROBLEMS AT NCEP WITH THE ETA MODEL TONIGHT...ONLY AVAILABLE THROUGH
36 HOURS...BUT THE NGM AND AVN MODELS ARE SUPPOSE TO BE ON TIME.  THE
FULL NGM IS IN AFOS WHILE THE AVN MODEL IS JUST BEGINNING TO COME IN.
BASED ON THE NTRANS DATA FOR THE ETA AND NGM THROUGH 36 HOURS...BOTH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS THE CURRENT IDEA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

SAN WB 053/059 049/062 049 058940

HORTON