Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS San Diego, CA

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST SUN FEB 8 1998

                          ...SYNOPSIS...

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO RIVER AT FASHION VALLEY UNTIL 10 AM
MONDAY. A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY. AN
APPROACHING STORM WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1 INCH IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LESS THAN 0.50 INCH IN THE DESERTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
SOME CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

                         ...DISCUSSION...

SAN DIEGO RIVER NEAR FASHION VALLEY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL MON AM. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND JUST GETTING
UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SAN COUNTY.
12Z NKX RAOB NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH LOWER 1500 FT...HOWEVER WINDS
DIRECTIONS LOOK BAD. PRESSURE RISES ACROSS MOST OF W AS LOW OFF PAC
NW WEAKENS. 6.5 FT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE MON AM AND WILL LIKELY STILL GET
TIDAL OVERFLOW DESPITE DECREASING WAVES.

12Z ETA/NGM/AVN INIT OK AND IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL HAVE SAME
IDEA OF BRINGING WEAK SHORT WAVE PAST TO N TONIGHT. WITH LOW HEIGHTS
AND MOIST AIR MASS WEAK PVA WILL BE ENUF TO KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS.
15Z MSO INDICATES SAME. 130 KT JET 40/140 DIVES DOWN OFF COAST
WITH 100 KT JET OVER US TONIGHT AT ABOUT 06Z. THIS COULD ENHANCE
PRECIP FOR SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AGAIN...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE AS MUCH AS LAST SYSTEM. SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FT
TONIGHT IN COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT AND LOWERING 850 TEMPS. RIDGING
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENTS FOR DRYING MON PM INTO
TUE. HOWEVER...MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
RAPID FLOW ACROSS PAC AND STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP BUT WILL GO WITH PC AND WARMER TUE. WITH
SOME DAMP GROUND STILL AROUND AND CLEARING SKIES MON AM AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT WILL GET SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG W OF MOUNTAINS. WILL START TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WED.

SAN BB 054/062 051/064 052 048311

ATKIN