Tornado Warning 19, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT AHEAD.

SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WITH SATELLITE/RADAR/OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING FRONT FROM NR WARSAW TO EAST OF NEVADA TO EAST OF JOPLIN.
ONE LONE CELL ALONG INTERSECTION OF FRONT AND EARLIER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY.

SO FAR NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON. SFC WINDS BECOME SW BEHIND RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM WARSAW TO NORTH OF WEST
PLAINS.
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL PRIMED FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT...JUST WAITING.
CONCERN IS ALSO FOCUSED LATER TONIGHT AS 50H SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEAST IN 120+ KT JET STREAM INTO MO BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ALL 3 MODELS SHOW SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG OK/TX BORDER AND
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT TO SCNTRL MO BY MORNING. EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO
LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH SHORT WAVE AND JET.  SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY EAST OF FRONT OVR SCNTRL MO.  BUT FOCUS
LATER TONIGHT MAY FOCUS TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.  FORTUNATELY MOST
AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY AS OF LATE...EXCEPT FOR NARROW AREA FROM NEVADA
TO HERMITAGE AND WARSAW.

FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN PREV THINKING.  THUS WILL GO WITH
NGM AND ITS SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.  ETA WOULD SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT TO BE OVR SE MO WHILE NGM WOULD HAVE IT MORE OVER
SW/SCNTRL MO.

MUCH COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  WILL FOLLOW FWC
MOS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW FWC POPS...EXCEPT FOR JLN/SE KS WHERE
BELIEVE POPS ARE TOO HIGH.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TONIGHT (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):

JLN/SE KS...50 PERCENT CHANC)TE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW
AROUND 50.  NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SGF...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD BE SEVERE
THIS EVENING.  LOW 50 TO 55.  SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING
NORTHWEST.

UNO...PERIODS OF S)THOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
LOW IN THE MID 50S.  SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

AIZ/VIH...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD BE SEVERE
THIS EVENING.  LOW 50 TO 55.  SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING
NORTHW)TEST.

CCF
SGF TC 052/054 038/054 035 06+53
JLN CC 049/054 038/056 035 0653-

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MOZ055>058-067>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 214 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

...IN MISSOURI...

BARRY             BARTON            BENTON            CAMDEN
CEDAR             CHRISTIAN         DADE              DALLAS
DENT              DOUGLAS           GREENE            HICKORY
HOWELL            JASPER            LACLEDE           LAWRENCE
MARIES            MCDONALD          MILLER            MORGAN
NEWTON            OREGON            OZARK             PHELPS
POLK              PULASKI           SHANNON           ST. CLAIR
STONE             TANEY             TEXAS             WEBSTER
WRIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AT MIDDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO NEAR NEVADA AND PITTSBURG KANSAS.  THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SUCH THAT TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY
SEVERE STORM.  LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY STORM.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

...IN KANSAS...

BOURBON           CHEROKEE          CRAWFORD

...IN MISSOURI...

BARRY
BARTON            BENTON            CAMDEN            CEDAR
CHRISTIAN         DADE              DALLAS            DENT
DOUGLAS           GREENE            HICKORY           HOWELL
JASPER            LACLEDE           LAWRENCE          MARIES
MCDONALD          MILLER            MORGAN            NEWTON
OREGON            OZARK             PHELPS            POLK
PULASKI           SHANNON           ST. CLAIR         STONE
TANEY             TEXAS             VERNON            WEBSTER
WRIGHT

...A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AT MIDDAY...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF WARSAW TO NEVADA TO
PITTSBURG KANSAS AND THEN TO TULSA.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND PRIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  ALSO...SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH WEST
WINDS ALOFT IS CREATING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE SUCH
BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM NEAR ALTON MISSOURI TO WEST PLAINS THEN TO JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO NEVADA.  THE OTHER BOUNDARY IS FROM
NEVADA TO JUST WEST OF JOPLIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES NEAR NEVADA AND THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE INCH OR MORE IS LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN MAY
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT FROM NEAR NEVADA TO HERMITAGE.

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

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