Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

FCST PROBLEM...HOW MUCH RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING.

SATELLITE SHOWS MCS OVR NE TX SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH RAIN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING INTO NW AR.  MAIN
50H UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVR SOUTH TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MAIN SFC LOW AND SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO MS/AL.  HOWEVER...AGREE WITH
DISCUSSION FROM 94E OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT (1.0 +) OVR FAR SW AND
SCNTRL MO AS 50H UPPER LOW MOVES THRU NRN ARK AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVES ALONG SRN TIER OF COUNTIES.  TIMING OF PCPN SLOWER
THAN PAST RUNS AND MORE IN LINE WITH NGM OF 24 HOURS A GO.  THUS
PREFER NGM AND ITS QPF PLACEMENT WITH THE 50H SYSTEM.  FOR THIS
MORNING RAIN TO HAVE HARD TIME ADVANCING NORTHEAST.  STRONG 70H VVEL
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF 50H LOW AND GENERATE A WIDE AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BASED ON EXPECTED QPF AND 94E AND CONSIDERING THE OZARK TERRAIN WILL
ISSUE A FFA FOR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES (SOUTH OF SGF)...BASICALLY
NEOSHO/PINEVILLE EAST TO EMINENCE/ALTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SE KS COUNTIES AS THAT AREA TENDS TO
BE MUCH LESS FLASHY IN NATURE. ABOVE WAS COORD WITH NWSFO
STL...LIT...AND NWSO PAH.

LINGERING 85H MOISTURE TO CAUSE CLOUDS TO LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL FOLLOW LOWER FWC MOS TODAY AND GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS ON SUNDAY.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TODAY (FOR COORDINATION ONLY):
**FFA AS DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES INCL BRANSON/WEST
PLAINS**

JLN/SE KS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH MID TO UPPER 60S.  EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.  RAIN CHANCE 90
PERCENT.

SGF/UNO...THIS AM: RAIN DEVELOPING.  THIS AFTN: PERIODS OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH MID TO UPPER 60S.  EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
RAIN CHANCE 90 PERCENT.

AIZ/VIH...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...PERIODS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  RAIN
CHANCE IS 80 PERCENT. HIGH NEAR 70.  EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

CCF
SGF RE 067/052 069/052 06981
JLN RB 067/052 073/055 0696-

RIDDLE