Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 1998

CONCERNS TODAY: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND TIMING THE END OF
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST AREA IN WEATHER LIMBO AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS STAGE RIGHT...
ANOTHER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND A THIRD APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 500 MB LOW HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE ACTIVITY
OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND INCREASING MIDDLE CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG EPISODES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO THE KANSAS CITY
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE THIS WAVE IS QUITE STRONG(22 TO 26
VORTICITY UNITS) THE MODELS DO NOT HIT THE PRECIPITATION THAT HARD.
RATHER HEFTY PVA INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE LESS THAN OPTIMAL. AREA OF SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA IN PVA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS.

50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT ZONES LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT
WAS OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THESE
SYSTEMS...WOULD LIKE TO KEEP IT IN WITH A QUALIFYING MAINLY THIS
EVENING IN THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN GROUPS.

WOULD ALSO LIKE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. AGAIN...CURRENT SET OF ZONES
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

MIDDLE CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE REGION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM
REACHING THE LOFTY HEIGHTS SUGGESTED BY FWC. FAN LOOKS TOO COOL
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER. WILL USE A BLEND OF FAN/FWC.

RECOMMENDATIONS (FORECAST PROVIDED FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):
SGF: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST
WIND NEAR 10 MPH.
JLN: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH NEAR 70. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
UNO: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH NEAR 70. WEST WIND 10 MPH.
AIZ/VIH: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WIND 10 MPH.

SGF EE 068/049 065/047 070 08552
JLN EE 070/050 066/047 073 08552

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...LATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
1027 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    1 S CALM                  MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/01/98   OREGON                          SPOTTER REPORT OF SMALL
                                           TREES TOWN

LINDENBERG