Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 1998

MIDNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT INTO W PERIPHERY OF CWA WITH LINE
OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT.  SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS IA
WITH ANOTHER NEW LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE OF TX.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHRTWV ACROSS IA AND S STREAM ENERGY ACROSS ARIZONA.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EH.  SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WILL BE THE ONE TO FOCUS ON DURING THE UPCOMING 48 HOUR PD AS IT
STRENGTHENS SFC LOW AND MOVES INTO THE MS VLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

GOING WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE ETA/NGM POSITION OF SFC FEATURE.
STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT AVN 48 HOUR SFC POSITION.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE S PTN AS LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE.  TEMP FCST WILL BE TRICKY BUT MY NUMBERS
ARE BASED ON FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH ACROSS MY CWA TDA.  SO WILL GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN JLN AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CWA.  BELIEVE MAIN PCPN WILL BE TO THE S AHEAD OF SFC FEATURE...AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD N INTO S MO IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS UPR LVL
ENERGY SPREADS NE AND SFC LOW PUSHES TO THE E INTO OK.  MAY NEED TO
SPLIT E CWA INTO MORNING/AFTERNOON WORDING TDA WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION. WILL DISCUSS THAT LATER IN COORDINATION CALL.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA (PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION)
SGF...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH AROUND 70.  SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
JLN...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 70 TO 75.  SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
UNO...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 70 TO 75.  SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
VIH/AIZ...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 70 TO 75.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

CCF
SGF ET 071/053 059/047 060 05478
JLN ET 074/054 061/048 062 05488

LINDENBERG