Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

RADAR IMAGES FROM KSGF AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA
MOVING SOUTHEAST. STORMS THAT LIKELY WENT SEVERE OVER VERNON/ST.
CLAIR/CEDAR COUNTIES HAVE WEAKENED SINCE MIDNIGHT. EVEN IF THIS
ROUND DIES OUT BEFORE REACHING I-44...LARGER AREA OF STORMS
CONTINUES OVER KANSAS CITY/TOPEKA AREA WITH SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND THE KANSAS CITY
AREA...WITH LITTLE OR NO INDICATION OF THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER
CENTRAL MO FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SFC TROF SETTING UP OVER EASTERN KS IS
HELPING TO GIVE A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

MAIN FOCUS FOR FORECAST THOUGHTS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN ON PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS STILL
ARE NOT KICKING OUT VERY MUCH PRECIP FOR ONGOING
ONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE ETA AND NGM PICKED UP ON THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MO. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA FOR MODEL
PREFERENCE DUE TO BETTER SURFACE PROGGS AND BETTER DETECTION OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO. WILL USE CURRENT
PRECIP AS MAIN GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS POPS...AND FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO
RAIN IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS OUT TO
LUNCH ON POPS FOR TODAY...BUT DOES WELL ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE.

RECOMMENDATIONS (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO/ BOURBON AND CRAWFORD CO KS...
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.

SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO...
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.

CHEROKEE CO KS...EXTREME SW MO (JASER/MCDONALD/NEWTON)...
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

CCF
SGF BE 086/066 083/063 081 17333
JLN BE 089/068 086/065 083 17223

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
   UNTIL 500 AM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 500 AM...HAS BEEN ISSUED
 BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

BENTON            CAMDEN            HICKORY
MILLER            MORGAN            VERNON

AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

BOURBON

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP UP TO DATE OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION. HAIL LARGER THAN DIME SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OVER 58
MILES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS IN THE WATCH AREA.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN OBSERVED OR INDICATED BY RADAR. IF YOU ARE
NEAR OR IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...

1) IN OPEN COUNTRY...SEEK SHELTER AND AVOID TREES WHICH CAN
BE TARGETS FOR LIGHTNING. IF THERE IS NO SHELTER...GO TO A DITCH OR
CULVERT BUT BEWARE OF RISING WATER WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING.

2) WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM.
AVOID USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.

3) IN MOBILE HOMES...YOU SHOULD LEAVE AND SEEK NEARBY SAFE SHELTER.

REMEMBER...WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THERE IS ALWAYS THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.

TERRY