Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT WED AUG 19 1998

BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AT
18Z.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CU FIELD TO THE E OF THE
FRONT ACROSS E PTN OF CWA.  RADAR SHOWS SOME TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
NW AR AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN BOSTON MOUNTAIN REGION.  UPR LVL ANALYSIS
FROM 12Z SHOWS HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS MO AND AMPLIFIED INTO THE UPR MS
VLY REGION.  MODIFIED SOUNDING FAIRLY DRY BUT VERY UNSTABLE WITH
4000+ J/KG CAPES AND LIS OF -8.

MAIN FCST FOCUS WILL BE WITH TEMPS AS RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA.  I HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SW MO TO PUT IN A
20 POP FOR THIS EVE...OTHERWISE I HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY.

FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED ACROSS MO LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE PUSHING S AND E INTO N MO BY THU NIGHT.  UPR
LVL RIDGE ISNT MOVING VERY MUCH THROUGH THE PD...HOWEVER IT WILL
DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS SHRTWV PUSHES ACROSS THE N PLAINS ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER.

FOR TEMPS...MOS NUMBERS SIMILAR BUT SEEM A BIT COOL.  ETA 2M LOOKS
TOO WARM ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT BUT MY CCF NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
ETA 2M FOR MAXES.

MY RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE SENT IN AN ADMSGF MESSAGE.

CCF
SGF BB 071/090 071/092 068 05---
JLN BB 074/093 073/095 071 052--

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED AUG 19 1998

THE OUTLOOK BELOW CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.  IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF
NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TO AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES.

LINDENBERG